Joe Ryan was on top of the world when he threw his first-ever complete-game shutout on Thursday, June 22. But regression hit him hard. He gave up a home run every other inning in his seven starts since the shutout.
Eventually, we learned that he was covering up a groin injury following the complete-game shutout. However, the injury may not be the only factor. He was also playing in a lot of heat.
We’re not talking about his fastball, but the temperature on the field. As many baseball people know, home run balls travel better in hotter weather than cold.
- June 27 in Atlanta: 86°F, allowed five home runs
- July 3 at home against the Kansas City Royals: 92°F, allowed a home run
- July 9 at home against the Baltimore Orioles: 80°F, allowed two home runs
- Start of the second half
- July 16 in Oakland: 80°F, allowed a home run
- July 21 at home against the Chicago White Sox: 82°F, allowed two home runs
- July 26 at home against the Seattle Mariners, 83°F degrees, allowed two home runs
- August 2 in St. Louis, 83°F, allowed four home runs
Not all of these game-time temps represent heat that was detrimental to him. In fact, the temperature of his complete-game shutout was the second hottest he’s thrown this summer (86°F). But the two games he allowed more than two home runs were in that 80°F range and in ballparks he had never thrown in before in his career.
It was 77°F at first pitch during his rehab start on Friday night in St. Paul. Ryan looked like his old self in the four innings he threw. Seven strikeouts, only two walks, and one hit. But that one hit was a home run, of course.
Does the heat and foreign ballpark to Ryan’s career fully explain the home run problem? Not entirely. Pitch selection also played a part.
In his young career, the fastball has been Ryan’s greatest asset in his pitch arsenal. However, it became his worst during the seven-start stretch. Of the 17 home runs he gave up, 10 of them were on his fastball. Suddenly, Ryan’s fastball started looking like a beach ball to opposing hitters, and it landed in bleachers across America.
Aside from his start against the Braves, he still struck out batters at least 25% of the time with the pitch. In Atlanta, though, Ryan whiffed batters only 13% of the time with his fastball.
Once opposing hitters started making more contact off Ryan’s fastball, he reduced how often he threw the pitch. Ryan would typically throw no fewer than 55% of the time before his start in Atlanta. But since then, he’s only had one game where he has thrown the pitch to hitters more than 55% of the time. He threw it 59.3% in Oakland on July 16.
Ryan responded to these hitters adapting on his best pitch by throwing his split finger fastball more often. Even before Ryan’s home run fiasco, the splitter was his go-to secondary pitch. He threw it more frequently than his other breaking balls. Even though it wasn’t as bad as his fastball against hitters, he still gave up four home runs with the split finger over his seven poor starts.
Breaking down opponents’ offensive numbers on his pitches offers further insight into how bad Ryan’s been since the end of June. However, hiding his injury is most culpable for his struggles. No matter what the numbers say on a pitch selection, venue, or temperature breakdown, hiding an injury and throwing through it only to end up with the worst stretch of starts in his career.
The Twins will have Ryan make at least one more rehab start with the Saints. That means the earliest he can return is during Minnesota’s final home series against the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland will be lucky if they hit more than 110 home runs collectively on the season.
The Guardians currently have 89 home runs in 125 games. Given his bad stretch before landing on the IL, Cleveland would be the perfect opponent for Ryan to return against.
After that, the Twins will face tougher power-hitting teams. The Texas Rangers to the Tampa Bay Rays are two of the top five home run hitting teams this season. If Ryan makes starts against one or both these teams, they’ll be the true test on whether the home run problem was directly attributed to his injury, or if his stuff just isn’t the same.
