Desperately needing to revamp the edge-rusher position at the dawn of the 2019 offseason, Brian Gutekunst made a pair of big splashes. He brought in both Za’Darius and Preston Smith on massive four-year deals. Following an inaugural season in which he swapped Jordy Nelson for Jimmy Graham, Gutekunst was departing starkly from the franchise’s draft-and-develop policy, carried on for years by his predecessor, the late Ted Thompson.
For all that was made about his aggressive approach out of the gate, though, he followed the Smith Bros’ deals by taking Rashan Gary at 12th overall. He took the best player available at a premium position, despite all the resources they’d already spent to fill that need. Perhaps Gutekunst did have some of the Packer Way in him. And if there was some doubt about it then, there sure as hell isn’t anymore. We’ve now seen him dedicate premium picks to premium positions almost religiously, withstand the media’s annual outcry for a first-round receiver. This past April, he make a very similar selection to the Gary pick in Iowa pass-rusher Lukas Van Ness.
Preston Smith is still around, but with Za’Darius Smith having complained his way to a third team in three seasons, Gary enters 2023 as a cornerstone of the Packers’ defense, alongside star corner Jaire Alexander. After being dubbed a top draft prospect solely off of measurables and despite limited production, Gary is approaching the full height of his potential with year-over-year improvement. He notched a career-high 9.5 sacks in 2021, up from five in his sophomore season. Before a torn ACL sidelined him for the remainder of the season, he’d already notched six in nine games. Gary also had seven tackles for loss at the halfway point, one shy of his career-high. As he continued to produce, the market took notice: His DPOY odds soared just behind the likes of Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons, who had become a phenomenon at that point.
This season, Gary makes his return to a Packers defense that badly needs him. Earlier this week, he tweeted “Comeback szn loading,” a sign that he is feeling like himself again as training camp approaches. Before Alexander was talked about as one of the elite players at his position, alongside the likes of Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, he was just a promising young player. That’s the transition Gary was on his way to completing in 2022, and one that is well within his grasp in 2023.
But unlike Alexander, Gary probably won’t be using his mouth, elaborate celebrations, or a flashy play style to help him get there. However, Joe Barry’s defense has all the pieces it needs to finally reach its potential, and doing so can absolutely unleash his star edge-rusher. The addition of Van Ness is massive. I’d imagine he enters rotationally, mainly for Preston Smith. That will help collapse the pocket from the other side and prevent offenses from singling out Gary. We’ve seen how effective having three playable edges was in the middle stages of Gary’s development alongside the Smiths in 2020.
A lack of physicality has plagued the Packers’ defense for years. They’re fast and technical but haven’t possessed nearly enough grit and tenacity to hold a candle to run-heavy systems like Kyle Shanahan’s. Having Kenny Clark and De’Vondre Campbell is valuable. Still, 2022 rookies Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt are the key to filling the gaps and actually solving the problem.
Walker was frequently the most violent player on last year’s defense. If he can exercise some self-control between plays, his development looks to be a breath of fresh air that makes life so much easier for the unit. Wyatt also has that capability. If the Packers can find a guy to play consistently good football next to Clark, it would solve multiple issues. However, unlike Walker, nothing we saw on or off the field last year would indicate that Wyatt can rise to this occasion. All we have to go on is what made him a first-round pick following Georgia’s dominant title run.
While Green Bay’s offense is a complete mystery at this point, the pieces are there defensively. The key to unleashing Gary is to create the best possible matchups by playing well around him. We’ve seen his raw power, insane agility for his size, and his dominance in one-on-one reps. For the league to also recognize it, he has to pile up sacks. That’s what the media responds to. He also has the opportunity to emerge as the face of one of the league’s most dominant defenses — if Barry can steer the ship in that direction. Although it’s highly possible, it’s far from a given with him having underwhelmed in each of his first two seasons as defensive coordinator.
Despite losing Aaron Rodgers, the league appears to be expecting no shortage of national interest in the Packers, scheduling them for five primetime games, plus Thanksgiving. It’s always been Rodgers’ team, but everything is up for grabs in the still-uncertain Jordan Love era. If his teammates facilitate opportunities, Rashan Gary has the upside for 15-18 sacks. Paired with the upside of the unit to generate league-wide attention, he could attain full-fledged superstardom this fall. It’s always felt like he’s been on the verge of it. The Packers won’t use Gary as a Swiss Army knife like Parsons, and he’s not a psycho like Nick Bosa. However, Gary has the raw power of guys like Watt, Garrett, and Crosby. Expect him to make a strong push in his comeback season.
