NFL Draft night is always intense, but this might be particularly true for the Green Bay Packers and the New York Jets this year. According to multiple reliable reports, it’s becoming realistic that both teams will finalize the deal involving Aaron Rodgers during the first day of the draft on April 27.
According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, even though the Jets are planning to have pick No. 13, there’s a scenario where the trade gets done during the process.
“They’re close, just they have some of those draft compensation considerations that they have to shake out,” Fowler said on SportsCenter. “Most people I talked to around the league believe closer to the draft, maybe even on Day 1 when teams are getting on the clock pretty soon that this will shake out.”
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport had a specific point worth exploring.
You can basically agree on a value and then figure out the different picks to go back and forth to get to that value.
“Both sides know that at some point that will get there, there’s just no reason for either to give in yet because nothing has happened and they don’t have to,” Rapoport said on The Pat McAfee Show. “So him [Joe Douglas] saying ‘he’ll be here’ is him being like, a deal is probably going to happen, they just don’t have one.”
That’s an interesting consideration because, following standard draft trade-value charts, it’s possible that the Packers and the Jets agree to a baseline value in points. They could establish multiple scenarios to reach that value according to how the board falls to 13 or 15.
According to Drafttek trade chart, which is based on the classic Jimmy Johnson chart still used around the league, the public has an idea of how a deal could shake out.
Let’s say, for this exercise’s sake, the Packers and Jets agree the trade value is 950 points, which is equivalent to the 17th-overall pick. There are two realistic scenarios that combine for this value.
Scenario 1
- Packers receive picks No. 42 and 43
- Jets receive Aaron Rodgers
The Jets will probably look for an offensive lineman with the 13th pick. If there is one they like on the board at 13, it could entice them to make the selection, then feel free to trade both of their second-round picks to the Packers. Those picks have values of 480 and 470 points, combining for 950 points.
Scenario 2
- Packers receive pick No. 13
- Jets receive Aaron Rodgers and pick No. 78
If there’s a run of offensive tackles early or the Jets don’t like their options at 13, they may be more inclined to trade out of the first round. In this case, the 13th pick would generate 1,150 points on the trade value chart. Therefore, the Packers would have to compensate the Jets, giving back their third-round pick. The Packers have the 78th-overall pick, which values exactly 200 points, so both teams would again agree to a 950-point trade value.
The Packers and Jets could have planned for more complex scenarios as well. If the parties want to involve future picks, it’s harder to calculate the exact value. First, because the classic thought is that teams should devalue picks in one round per year, but the new (and analytically inclined) perception is that the pick doesn’t lose as much value after only one season. Moreover, while teams know where they are picking in 2023, that’s not true for the 2024 draft. Then, conditionals and protections might come into play.
For example, the Packers could agree to receive picks No. 42 (second round) and 112 (fourth round) this year, plus a conditional second in 2024 that could be a first depending on New York’s performance in 2023. Considering a moderate devaluation of the future pick, that scenario would equal 900 points. However, it would have a higher upside if the Jets reach the threshold for the conditional to become a first-rounder.
If the Jets make selections No. 13, 42, and 43 and the trade doesn’t get done, things get much more complicated. By then, the Packers would have no incentive to reach a deal before June 1. After June 1, it would become possible to spread Rodgers’ dead money and open up $24 million extra in 2023 cap space, an amount that would only hit the cap in 2024. And Green Bay wouldn’t have much incentive to finalize the deal before Week 1 when they need to pay Rodgers his $58.3 million roster bonus.
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst indicated that any package after the draft would probably have to include valuable players to replace the immediate picks.
“Certainly if we get beyond the draft, then everything changes, compensation changes,” Gutekunst said during the owners meeting two weeks ago in Phoenix. “That would be a whole different scenario, but hopefully, we can get this done soon.”
Indications are both teams are willing to finalize the deal in the draft. However, right now it’s smart for both parties to see who will be on the board to make a more informed decision by the end of the month. And given the confidence of both sides that something will get done, there are multiple scenarios that satisfy the Packers and the Jets that they can be agreed upon.
