You’re probably having a great year if you like to bet the favorites. But if you prefer playing the dogs like I do, it’s been an adventure. Home dogs are only hitting at a 42% clip this year, the second worst in 35 years. I’m backing a couple of them this week. It has to turn at some point, right? Right?
Without further ado, here are the three puppies I have my eye on this weekend:
Jets +3 ½ vs. Rams
This may be my favorite play of the week, and that’s coming from a guy who’s gotten paid fading New York for most of the season. The Jets are playing better and are not in a position to tank for draft position with Aaron Rodgers under center. Of course, this is one of those dreaded home dogs, so I’m hoping the trend-bucking starts this weekend.
Speaking of The Enigma, he’s quietly strung together a few solid weeks, and his chemistry with Davante Adams looks quite familiar these days. On a cold afternoon in New Jersey, they’ll welcome the Rams, the latest NFC West flavor of the day.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has never been great in cold weather: He’s 1-3 when games are under 30 degrees, which will be the case on Sunday. LA’s offense is cooking right now, but the elements, an early start, and a feisty Jets defense may slow their roll this weekend. I think the Rams could lose outright.
Steelers +6 ½ at Ravens
I pretty much always play the underdog in this great rivalry because it’s been very profitable for years. More often than not, throw out the records, the games are settled by a field goal.
The Ravens have revenge on their minds and obviously must have this if they want to keep fighting for the AFC North title. Lamar Jackson won’t win the MVP again this season, but he’s playing well enough to repeat. Still, he rarely flashes that MVP form against the Steelers. Jackson is only 1-4 against them in his career, with the win coming the first time he faced them in 2019. Oddly, this is just the second time he’ll face them at home.
With T.J. Watt set to play despite the ugly-looking injury he suffered last week, and that’s good enough for me. The Ravens will win to keep their division hopes alive, but it won’t be by six or more.
Bears +6 ½ vs. Lions
I’m not one of those guys ready to cast aside the Lions now that their injury-riddled defense makes less money than Michigan’s starting defense. You know Dan Campbell is using the bad injury luck as fuel and will have his guys in ‘us against the world’ mode.
Meanwhile, the Bears have pretty much looked dreadful for weeks, but they get the Lions on a cold afternoon at their house, with a blustery wind blowing in off Lake Michigan. Jared Goff’s struggles in cold weather are well documented, and for the most part, the Bears have been competitive in division games this weekend. We all remember the scare they put into the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
Sure, Jahmyr Gibbs could go off against a subpar Bears run defense. But it’s probably the slowest field in the league, and with the Lions passing game likely not as electric as usual, I think the Bears can stay within sniffing distance.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 18-27
