Locks
NBA (1 Unit Each) Naz Reid Over Points & Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Because of injury designations, points props aren’t available at the time of this writing, but I don’t care what number eventually gets posted, I’m going over on both. The Wolves have had plenty of time to get ready for this game with their odd 3-day mini bye, and I think that helps them shred a bad Jazz defense. It’s the league’s second-worst by both efficiency and rating, plus Utah is on a back-to-back after a high-possessions game against Atlanta last night. But the injury situation for the Wolves likely means we’ll see more of Naz and NAW carrying the load tonight, so look for them to have integral scoring roles.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Bonaventure +1.5 vs Duquesne (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBSSN
Well the A10 tournament has been crazy, so we might as well assume more craziness is in store. One thing I’ve noticed so far in these conference tournaments is teams who got swept in the regular season getting their revenge. It’s anecdotal and unscientific and could easily get me in trouble, but I’m going with it here since Duquesne won both regular season meetings.
They were competitive games though, in spite of St Bonaventure being ice cold from deep in both. The Bonnies have shown in this tournament why they’re 24th nationally in three-point percentage, so if they keep that up they’ll get their revenge here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas A&M/Florida Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
I’m sorry Texas A&M, I wasn’t familiar with your game. The Aggies were wet from long range against Kentucky yesterday, and even though lighting up a bad Wildcats defense isn’t that impressive, it gives me confidence that they can keep it up today. This is going to be a battle of elite guard play, and in March that generally means points.
These are also both incredibly good offensive rebounding teams with A&M leading the country and Florida ranked 6th, so second chance points will help pad scoring. The regular season meeting only got to 133 points, yet this number is on the rise towards the metrics projections of mid-150’s, so I following the money.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Peter’s +2.5 vs Fairfield (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU
This is another of those situations where the favorite in this game is also who swept the regular season meetings. Metrics sites are projecting a one possession game here, and with how this MAAC tournament has gone so far I tend to agree that it comes down to the wire. St Peter’s won on a buzzer-beating tip-in yesterday, so they’re no stranger to close calls and should be riding that momentum in this revenge spot. The Peacocks have an excellent three-point defense to neutralize a Fairfield team that takes a ton of three’s, and the Stags had two of their worst shooting games against St Peter’s this year. I’m riding the trend again here and expecting a close game that the Peacocks could easily take outright.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kent State +5.5 vs Akron (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Here’s another one! Kent State was swept by Akron this season as part of their up-and-down campaign, but this is far too many points for an unsteady Akron squad to be laying in a title game. Kent State has all the talent in the world, or at least in the little world that is the MAC, they just haven’t put it together this season. Their ability to excel at all levels of the floor both offensively and defensively gives them an advantage here against a more one-dimensional Zips team. This one is not only about the revenge angle, it’s a play on a big number that’s well outside the metrics projections for a talent-rich team.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UTEP/Western Kentucky First Half Over 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on CBSSN
Western Kentucky has been extremely impressive in their two seamless C-USA tournament wins so far. It’s not the same story for UTEP who has ended up needing crazy runs against both Liberty and Sam Houston to advance to this title game, but I think they get it together earlier tonight. They’ll need to, otherwise the insane pace of the Hilltoppers will run them out of the gym.
WKU is the fastest-paced team in the country, and they love getting transition buckets which UTEP struggles to defend, but the Miners are also up-tempo at 61st in the country. Those tendencies were on display in the regular season meetings that saw 82 and 79 points before halftime. So while this may slow down later on as title games tend to do, I think high tempo from both teams early on creates enough easy buckets to get over this number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UT Arlington +3.5 First Half vs Grand Canyon (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2
This is the last instance of me backing a team that’s an underdog after being swept in the regular season series. It has to be because it’s the last game of the night, but I’m also going with a slightly different angle here with an even more observable trend. Arlington may have lost both games to Grand Canyon, but they held leads of 5 and 4 points in those games. GCU has had a tendency for years now to play with their food early in games, and with Arlington riding a ton of momentum I think they get out to a good start again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2139-1928 ATS (+101.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
