Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida +5.5 vs Auburn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN
Auburn is out for revenge here, and they’re a really good team who can certainly go get it over Florida, but not by this much. The Tigers have one of the best defenses in the country, certainly by opponent shooting, but their weakness has been teams with elite guard play that can frustrate their inconsistent backcourt. That’s a big part of why they dropped SEC games to Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and this Florida squad.
Guards are the determining factor in March, and the Gators have an excellent backcourt that is hitting top gear in this tournament. Florida also has excellent size to frustrate a smaller Auburn frontcourt that was pushed around yesterday by a physical Mississippi State team. It doesn’t make any sense to lay a big number like this in a title game, so with a tight matchup here I’ll take the points with the Gators.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Wisconsin/Illinois Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
Not only did these teams combine for 174 points just two weeks ago, they’ve both been red hot in this tournament. Both squads shot over 50% from the field in that lone regular season meeting, and while that’s not likely to be repeated, I’m asking for 25 fewer points today. I think they can get there on the strength of two offenses that are top-15 in the country for adjusted efficiency.
The Illini are especially hot, going back the entire Big10 schedule now, and I see no reason this offense can’t have another big day. Illinois finally decided to let it fly from deep yesterday, and if they continue that approach here they’ll have plenty of success against the country’s 347th-ranked three-point defense. But the massive weakness for the Illini all season has been defending inside the arc, and Wisconsin has elite post and mid-range scorers to take advantage. As long as the Badgers don’t grind this game to a halt, I think it gets into the mid-150s where metrics sites are setting their projections.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2144-1931 ATS (+103.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
