Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 63 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
It will be pretty interesting to see what Atlanta’s punishment is for poking the bear. I don’t think they’ll enjoy the vengeful version of the Celtics, especially since they haven’t been able to stop the normal version all season. Boston has put up first half point totals of 69, 71, and then 74 on Monday against Atlanta this year, and now they’ll be extremely motivated off their embarrassing collapse.
This is the league’s highest-scoring first half team at 63.4 PPG and are averaging 67.3 in their past 10 games, so they should be able to get rolling downhill against a tired Hawks team that had to play last night. With another shooter in Derrick White expected back tonight against the porous Hawks defense, they should light it up again.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Clemson +7.5 vs Arizona (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:09 PM CT on CBS
Clemson has their hands much more full tonight than in the first two rounds, but this team has proven they can hang. Their win over Baylor showed that they can handle a team with elite shooting, and they’ll need that again tonight with Arizona so proficient from the field and long range.
Fixing some of the perimeter defense issues that plagued them this season makes me confident the Tigers can slow Arizona down both inside and out tonight. They already have an elite interior defense, and a slow tempo that should keep the game closer by default. With Chase Hunter playing extremely well, Clemson has several go-to guys on all parts of the floor, so look for them to keep this one close.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) UConn -6.5 First Half vs San Diego State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on TBS
Haven’t we been here before? The rematch of last year’s title game is probably going to be even more lopsided this time around, and I think it starts early. Once again, SDSU is fairly lucky to be here after getting to face a Yale team on Sunday that had its luck completely flip.
The Aztecs looked like the mediocre team they are in the first round when they struggled to put away UAB, a team that can match their physicality. That’s exactly what UConn will do, with absolutely elite shooting to go along with it. Dan Hurley is not messing around and has this team extremely motivated, so expect something along with lines of the 12-point halftime margin we saw last April.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) North Carolina -4.5 vs Alabama (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:39 PM CT on CBS
Speaking of teams who are lucky to be here, Alabama seems like a squad that should be thankful for its draw. They still almost blew it against Grand Canyon in the sloppiest game I’ve ever seen, and they’d better clean that up fast if they want any chance tonight. UNC is going to be an extremely tough matchup for the Tide, as they bring an elite perimeter defense and strong post presence to counter the dunks-and-threes style.
The Tar Heels also have one of the most efficient offenses Alabama has seen all season, and that kind of opponent has given the Tide fits this year. Bama may also be missing Latrell Wrightsell tonight who is critical to their offense, and that makes it extremely difficult to keep pace with UNC here. The metrics sites make this a one-possession game but the smart money has moved the number towards UNC, so I’ll lay it with the Heels tonight.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Iowa State -1.5 vs Illinois (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:09 PM CT on TBS
The age-old question of unstoppable force versus immovable object gets another go-around in this game, and I think my Clones come out on top. We’ve seen other instances of the top offense in the country meeting the top defense, and the defense tends to win out. In a tournament setting I think it definitely wins out, as at some point in a close game stops need to be made.
Illinois has shown they’re going to struggle with that, while Iowa State can clamp down on just about anyone. I trust TJ Otzelberger and his almost Belichick-esque ability to take away the opponent’s top weapon, and if they limit Terrence Shannon tonight I see ISU winning comfortably. Other elite defensive teams have had success against the Illini this year, and with the best defense in the country I’ll back my Clones to advance here.
Bonus Cyclones Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings):
0.75 Unit – Tamin Lipsey Over 4.5 Assists (+110)
0.5 Unit – Keshon Gilbert Over 13.5 Points (-110)
0.5 Unit – Milan Momcilovic Over 9.5 Points (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2173-1956 ATS (+103.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
