Locks
NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers/Indiana Pacers Over 242 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
I don’t have the explanation for it, but there’s a very distinct trend impacting the Pacers and totals. When the number is below 240 they trend heavily to going under, but a total north of 240 causes them to trend over. Case in point their track meet with the Lakers from Sunday night, when this exact total was never in doubt with 295 points. The Lakers meanwhile are still the best over bet in the league, especially on the road where they’re 22-12 to the over. They’re also getting healthier and hotter, so I don’t see either team having answers defensively as this turns into another shootout.
NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks Team Total Over 110.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on MSG
The Knicks appear to be actively trying to crush bad teams, as they’re leaving starters in the game during blowouts and chasing stat records. I don’t have to approve of it, but I will take it in a game like this against another bad team. With Victor Wembanyama back in the lineup for San Antonio they should be a little more competitive though, which probably helps push New York’s scoring upward. The Spurs have been tough to figure out down the stretch of the season, but the Knicks have not as they’re trying to make statements. With a total this low and the Knicks having dropped 126 on the Spurs back in November, I can only look to the team total here.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) NC State/Marquette Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:09 PM CT on CBS
This total is right in line with the metrics projections, but I think the game manages to find its way over. That might be mostly thanks to the Marquette offense being on fire with Tyler Kolek back healthy, crossing the 80-point mark in both games of the tournament. Their volume three-point shooting and excellent percentage from deep will exploit the biggest defensive weakness for NC State, which was a problem for the Wolfpack last weekend.
But this NC State team just keeps scoring themselves with a very balanced offense, which they’ll need against such an excellent Marquette defense. But teams that can attack them from all over the floor have given the Golden Eagles issues, including last weekend. With neither team afraid to play an up-tempo style, I think we see enough offense from two hot teams to clear this total.
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Gonzaga/Purdue Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:39 PM CT on TBS
This game should feature high-efficiency offense from both teams, and I think this total is much too low as a result. Purdue ranks 3rd and Gonzaga is 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency, they’re 13th and 6th, respectively, in effective field goal percentage, and I think the style of game lends itself to a lot of scoring. Gonzaga should be able to force Purdue into a more perimeter-oriented offense today with their strength down low to push Zach Edey around.
That’s not something that happens often, but the Zags are one of a few teams that can pull it off. But that makes a Bulldogs defense that hasn’t been good at guarding the three susceptible to the country’s best three-point shooting team. Purdue surrounded Edey with excellent shooters for just this kind of game, and if those are dropping we’ll see a ton of points tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Gonzaga +5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
If you want to keep trusting Matt Painter in March, especially now that we’re in the Sweet 16, be my guest. I’m not doing it though, the track record is just too ugly. Gonzaga is heating up in the tournament and has interesting matchup advantages all over the floor here, so I’ll trust the better coach in Mark Few to at least keep this close.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2176-1961 ATS (+102.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
