Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers +1.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
Some teams just don’t match up well with others, and that sure seems to be the case with New Orleans against this Lakers squad. The regular season series saw the Pelicans get run out in 3 of the 4 meetings, with the only win for the Pels requiring them to shoot 50% from deep. New Orleans has found out the hard way that putting LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the court together is still a formidable duo. They’re also who the NBA wants desperately to succeed, and I think the Lakers clinch the 7th seed tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
Last night the surging Royals took care of business against a bad Chicago team with a starting pitcher making his major league debut. That’s the exact situation again tonight, so I’m going right back to that well with Kansas City. I’ve never heard of White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, but if he’s getting starts for this organization he can’t be all that good yet. Royals starter Brady Singer however has been nearly untouchable this season, and has good numbers against the depleted White Sox lineup. I’ll trust KC to keep punishing Chicago like they’ve done plenty of times this season already.
MLB (1 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Houston Astros (+135; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on TBS
Similar to the Royals game, this is another case of déjà vu where I’m going back to the same well again. It took a little while for the Braves to wake up their bats last night, but it’s sort of inevitable that they pummel poor pitching. I think they get rolling earlier tonight against Hunter Brown who has been crushed this season, allowing one of the league’s highest hard-hit rates.
Add in the awful Astros bullpen and Atlanta should have no trouble putting up runs. But the Braves have a much better starter going themselves tonight with Reynaldo Lopez, so I think they’re in an even better position than last night to cruise here. At the same juicy price as last night but perhaps with bigger advantages, I’ll lay it with the Braves again.
MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals @ LA Dodgers -1.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network
I love when the Dodgers lose at home to bad teams. That’s what they did last night in fairly inexplicable fashion with their ace on the mound, so LA should be in for a bounce back tonight. Usually that positive regression towards the mean is a pretty big swing, and I would’ve expected to see more juice attached to their run line here.
It’s held down though because the Dodgers are giving Kyle Hurt his first major league action tonight. Big league debut or not, it’s more about what the LA offense will do here against Nationals starter Patrick Corbin, and my bet is they’ll tee off. Corbin has been his usually awful self to start this year, so the powerful and motivated Dodger lineup should produce enough for them to pull away by multiple runs tonight.
Degenerates
MLB Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 5:35 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’m not a huge fan of laying juice in the F5 under market, but this pitching matchup is one I want to take advantage of. Chris Paddack has shown quality stuff against two really tough lineups as the Twins have eased him into the season, and he has good numbers in the limited action he’s seen against the Baltimore hitters.
And Grayson Rodriguez has been even more impressive, only allowing 4 total F5 runs in his 3 starts. He should hold down a Twins lineup that is one of the worst in MLB against righthanded pitching. I also want to avoid both teams’ bullpen questions, so look for quality starters to keep this low-scoring early on.
Tiny Nick is 2199-1996 ATS (+97.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
