Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels/Tampa Bay Rays Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
These teams have gone over this total every game of this series, and in 4 of 6 meetings this season. Now in today’s matchup we see probably the worst two starting pitchers square off for each team, so that makes this total too low in my mind. Griffin Canning for the Angels has been tagged for 16 runs across his 3 starts this season, and his base and expected metrics show a pitcher that can’t get hitters out. Ryan Pepiot for the Rays hasn’t been a whole lot better, especially at home where he’s had two bad outings. These lineups are more potent than they get credit for, so look for this game to get over the low number today.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on Marquee
The Cubs are in a tough situational spot tonight in this first game back at Wrigley after a long west coast road trip. But I don’t particularly care because the Marlins are just that bad. They’re even worse when AJ Puk takes the mound, especially in the first five innings. Miami has trailed after five innings in all of Puk’s starts, and they should again tonight as the Cubs are one of the better lineups against lefties, leading MLB in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ in that split. Chicago is also one of the better first five teams in general, so against an awful opponent I think they cruise from the start here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2204-1998 ATS (+100.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
