Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/NY Knicks Under 208.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN
I always expect games like this, a Game 1 between two division rivals, to be a slower feeling-out process. That should be especially true of the Knicks who play at the slowest tempo in the NBA, while the 76ers are 18th in pace. And with a banged-up Joel Embiid, don’t expect the Sixers to be playing very up-tempo.
These are not great shooting teams but they are great defensive teams, and that was on display in the regular season series. They only got over this total once in the four meetings, averaging 190.8 PPG and turning in one of the lowest-scoring games I’ve seen in over a decade, so I’ll go under the total here as well.
NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets -2 First Quarter (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
Any time I watch a high-profile Nuggets game, their home court advantage is very apparent. They use pace and the elevation to jump on teams early, especially an older team like the Lakers. That’s why they’re best in the NBA for average first quarter margin in home games at plus-4.7 points. The Lakers meanwhile are 29th in first quarter points allowed on the road, so they’ll definitely give up some scoring here. Only one of the regular season meetings between these teams was played in Denver, and the Nuggets jumped out to a 14-point lead after a quarter. I think the one seed makes a statement here and jumps out to a strong early lead tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets -4 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Ditto everything I said about the first quarter and make it about the first half. While the average margin isn’t as pronounced for Denver as the first quarter, the Lakers defense still gives up the second-most points in first halves on the road. LA plays at such a fast pace that they’re bound to wear out quickly, and that first quarter lead should expand by halftime to cover this number.
NBA Playoff Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Mike Conley Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+105)
0.25 Unit – Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+140)
0.25 Unit – Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+155)
0.75 Unit – Grayson Allen Over 2.5 Made Three’s (-115)
0.5 Unit – Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+105)
1 Unit – Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 Assists (+110)
0.75 Unit – Josh Hart Over 28.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
0.25 Unit – Buddy Hield Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-120)
0.5 Unit – Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+125)
0.5 Unit – Michael Porter Jr Under 2.5 Made Three’s (+125)
0.25 Unit – Anthony Davis Over 0.5 Made Three’s (+110)
MLB (1 Unit) Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs -0.5 First Five Innings (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 1:20 PM CT on Marquee
The Cubs jumped all over a bad Marlins pitcher yesterday for a big early lead, and they’ll see another one today that I think they can have a similar result against. Jesus Luzardo has really struggled to open the season, and the opposing team has held a lead after five innings in his past three starts. He’s another lefty for the Cubs to punish, as they’re one of baseball’s best against southpaws.
And with Javier Assad starting for Chicago it’s fairly likely the Marlins don’t even score in the first five innings. He’s yet to give up a run in the first five of any of his starts, and the light-hitting Marlins shouldn’t be too much of a challenge. I’m amazed that this number isn’t carrying heavy juice, so lay it early with the Cubbies today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2210-2003 ATS (+98.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
