Following the hard-fought win against the Chicago Sky 79-75, I asked Kayla McBride how it felt to string a few good games together after a post-Olympic break slump. “Everyone talks about the threes, threes, threes,” referencing her shooting slump before continuing, “but there’s so many other things I think I can contribute to us and help us win.”
McBride earned her fourth All-Star selection, her first since 2019, after a dazzling start to the season that saw her average 16.4 points per game while shooting 42.7% from three on 7.1 attempts per game. As a result of her elite shooting, McBride had a 64.0% true shooting, aggregate shooting percentage that gives higher value threes and less to free throws, which would be a career-high if it held out through the entire year.
The first half of the season was something of a renaissance for McBride, who had seen her production dip since coming to the Lynx in the 2021 offseason. But after the extended Olympic break, McBride appeared to the naked eye to struggle to find the same groove she had in the first half of the season.
In the first four games back, she went 12 of 34 (35.3%) overall from the field and 7 of 21 (33.3%) from three. While the Lynx won all four games, McBride acknowledged that she started slow. “It’s been a slow start after the All-Star break,” she said. “It’s hard not playing for a month, but I just try to do everything I can to help the team win.”
The Indiana game seemed to have been the turning point for McBride’s shooting. Including that game, she has shot 22 of 53 (41.5%) from the field and an improved 11 of 31 (35.5%) from three. While the shooting percentages are not quite the pre-All-Star numbers, her attempts per game have returned, and her aggression to score has increased. However, the Lynx are 7-1 post-break, and Kayla McBride’s ratings have been significantly better, regardless of her shooting percentages.
McBride has seen her offensive rating improve by 10.2 points since the break, which has caused her overall net rating to improve by 7.2 points, going from 9.7 to 16.9. The 16.9 rating would rank 8th in the WNBA among all players who play a minimum of 8 mins. To add more confusion to the ratings increase, McBride’s individual PIE (WNBAs statistic attempting to break down a player’s total value one number) has dropped from a 13.4 pre-All-Star to a 7.9 post-All-Star.
Things don’t seem to add up. A shooting slump, a 41.1% decrease in PIE value, and a 57.4% increase in net rating. It doesn’t make any sense until I reflect on McBrides’ quote: There are so many other things I think I can contribute… and I just try to do everything I can to help.
McBride does a litany of things during a game that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. She guards the opposing team’s best wing player to an elite level every game. She is posting a career-best 93.7 defensive rating this year of 93.7, which is 1.3 points better than the Lynx’s league-leading 95.0 rating.
The WNBA doesn’t track opponent shooting percentages or matchups for individual players. However, I backtracked the past five games where the Lynx were 4-1. The guards from the opposing teams shot a combined 58 of 170 (34.1%). That’s 7.1% better than the Lynx’s league-leading field goal percentage against (41.3%).
I couldn’t whittle down every game to every shot McBride defended. Still, the 34.1% is largely due to McBride matching up against the opposing team’s best guard for 31.8 minutes on the court per game. McBride is also averaging a career-high 1.4 steals per game while only fouling 1.2 times per game, her lowest total since 2018.
The defensive guard percentages, steals, rating, and lack of fouling all suggest that McBride is excelling on the defensive side of the ball. That, combined with her shooting numbers returning to form over the past four games, likely is why McBride is seeing such a drastic bump in her net rating. However, the PIE struggles to value defense, as there are no clear statistics for good on-ball defense and shot contesting. Thus, the PIE lags in valuing McBride appropriately.
The Lynx currently sit atop the Western Conference, and if the playoffs were to start today, they would be the 2-seed. As McBride continues to find her rhythm, her defensive ability cements her as a valuable piece of a Lynx roster looking to bring another championship to the Target Center.
