The moment Kirk Cousins signed with the Atlanta Falcons, it opened a Pandora’s Box of outcomes for the Minnesota Vikings. They were finally taking a swing at getting a top-tier quarterback, and the photoshops and hot takes on the internet became legion.
With less than a week until the draft, many fans are dreaming of Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy slinging passes to Justin Jefferson. But that fantasy might ignore a reality that Vikings fans don’t want to admit.
Quarterback-needy teams hold the top three picks in the draft. The fourth pick belongs to a team that may have a top prospect in mind, and the team with the fifth pick may have an insatiable grudge against Minnesota for their choice of head coach. That could leave the Vikings out of the cold and lead them to their nightmare scenario – Bo Nix.
Nix is the outcast of the top five quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Nobody in their right mind wants to see Nix in a Vikings uniform. If they had the choice, they would just take Michael Penix Jr. However, the decision isn’t up to a popular vote, and Nix could be the quarterback the Vikings are stuck with.
Ideally, Minnesota would love to trade into the top three. Despite what general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said about walkaway prices and love for all quarterbacks, the idea of acquiring a second first-rounder in a loaded draft was to reduce the amount of long-term capital needed to trade up from the 11th-overall pick.
That gave the Vikings flexibility, allowing them to relinquish two picks in this year’s draft instead of burning picks from three years out, as was the case with the Robert Griffin III and Trey Lance trades.
But just like any good deal, there needs to be a partner on the other end. The Chicago Bears are taking Caleb Williams. Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters told reporters on Thursday that he “feels great about staying at No. 2.” The New England Patriots director of scouting declared that he was “open for business” less than an hour later. However, they could also ignore their myriad roster needs and take a quarterback.
That could leave the Vikings scrambling for a deal with the Arizona Cardinals or Los Angeles Chargers. The Cardinals have also declared themselves open for business, but they also could decide Marvin Harrison Jr. is too good to pass up.
The Chargers are the next trade partner, but Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio believes that Jim Harbaugh could still hold a grudge after losing out on the head coaching job to Kevin O’Connell.
That would send the Vikings tumbling further down the board and could leave them with a decision to make with the 11th-overall pick. They could reach on a quarterback, replicating the sins of the Christian Ponder pick, or they could take the next player on the board. NFL Network’s Peter Schrager believes that could lead them to Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold. However, it could also direct them to another top defensive prospect, such as Texas defensive lineman Byron Murphy II.
If the Vikings go defense at No. 11, it could boil down to Nix and Penix. KSTP’s Darren Wolfson suggested on SKOR North that the Vikings prefer Nix over Penix, which could lead them to select the Oregon quarterback at No. 23 or trade back, grab him later, and accumulate more picks.
The first question Vikings fans would have is why they would prefer Nix over Penix. Penix beat Nix twice at Washington last season and led the Huskies to the championship game of the College Football Playoff. However, Nix also has some qualities that O’Connell would like.
Nix’s accuracy would be the first thing that stands out to O’Connell after setting the NCAA’s completion record at 77% last season.
Nix also doesn’t turn the ball over. Pro Football Focus charted him with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the nation last year. He usually made the correct decision, leading an Oregon offense that was second behind LSU (45.5) with 44.2 points per game.
There’s also the discussion of what the Vikings would be putting around Nix. Adofo-Mensah spent a long time discussing the benefits of a strong supporting cast around a quarterback and watched Kyle Shanahan’s offensive Avengers carry Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl.
Tossing Nix into the driver’s seat of an offense that has Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, Brian O’Neill, and Aaron Jones would be good enough. But then you consider that O’Connell would be on the sideline orchestrating it all like a nine-year-old who just faked sick so he could smash Madden all day.
Also consider that O’Connell wouldn’t have to flip his offense for a left-handed quarterback. These things won’t excite fans who have spent the last three months watching Penix throw downfield, but they’re catnip for a head coach and a general manager who is entering the third year of four-year contracts.
But even if the Vikings could make Nix work, it wouldn’t erase Vikings fans’ concerns.
Nix makes the correct play and limits his turnovers, but he also rarely takes chances downfield. According to PFF, Nix’s big-time throw percentage (aka a pass with excellent ball location and timing generally thrown down the field and/or into a tighter window) was 91st among qualifying quarterbacks last season.
Oregon also tailored its offense so Nix could make quick, easy decisions. PFF charted Nix’s 22.2% screen rate as the 12th highest in the country and his average depth of target of 6.8% as the fifth-lowest.
NFL head coaches will play the I can fix him game with anyone, but it’s hard to imagine it working with Nix. While trading up for a top quarterback would come with challenges, the Vikings would also be working with Maye, who’s 21.
If the Vikings played this game with Nix, they would be working with someone who turned 24 last February, making him less than two years younger than Sam Darnold. Oh, and Nix convinced Gopher fans to build a statue of P.J. Fleck during the Outback Bowl five years ago.
There’s also the fact that Nix would be like a younger version of the quarterback they just replaced. O’Connell spent the first two years of Minnesota trying to get the most out of Cousins, only to have him check down on fourth-and-eight in a playoff game.
If the Vikings drafted Nix, there would be the same fear. Then they would have the added question of Can we build around him? while shifting from Cousins’ massive contract to the extension Jefferson will sign in the coming months.
The whole thing triggers Vikings fans who have gotten PTSD over the fruitless search for a franchise quarterback over the past 20 years. While some have gotten hurt, others have been underwhelming and, to be honest, boring.
Think of the most fun the Vikings have had at quarterback in the past 20 years. There was a charismatic JUGS machine named Daunte Culpepper, followed by a mercenary in Brett Favre. Eight years later, the Vikings went to the NFC Championship Game with journeyman Case Keenum before trudging through the past six years with Cousins.
The part that made drafting a quarterback so exciting is that fans wouldn’t have to sit through a robot quarterback anymore. Getting rid of Cousins and replacing him with Nix would be starting the cycle again.
That’s why Vikings fans are so opposed to staying with Nix. But if the rest of the draft has anything to say, it may be the best they can do.
