Sam Darnold threw his third and final interception with 12:10 left in the third quarter with the Jacksonville Jaguars leading, 7-3. It was his third pick targeting Justin Jefferson and his second in the red zone.
Worse yet? Entering this game, Jacksonville had only had two picks all year.
The Minnesota Vikings beat the Jaguars 12-7, but the score doesn’t do the game justice. Vegas had the Vikings as seven-point favorites entering the game, and they should have won by multiple scores.
Still, Darnold is regressing. He had an 11:3 touchdown-to-reception rate in September and a 6:7 rate in the five games since. He leads the league with 13 turnovers.
Darnold’s regression started in London when he repeatedly threw inaccurate passes deep as it began to drizzle at Tottenham Stadium. The Vikings beat the New York Jets, 23-17, but it took a late Stephon Gilmore pick as Aaron Rodgers was driving to stave off a three-win team. Darnold finished with 179 yards and a pick.
Against the Indianapolis Colts last week, fans started calling for Nick Mullens after Darnold threw an interception into double coverage on Minnesota’s first drive. However, Mullens won’t solve the Vikings’ turnover issue, and Brett Rypien wouldn’t be an upgrade over either quarterback. Darnold is Minnesota’s best option and will be for the rest of the season.
It’s probably not lost on anybody that the Vikings are in the part of the schedule where it made the most sense to play J.J. McCarthy. In an alternate universe where McCarthy didn’t become the first first-round rookie in NFL history to miss his first season with an injury, Darnold would have done his job. The Vikings started 5-2 in the most challenging part of their schedule and could ease McCarthy in against lesser opponents.
The Vikings beat the Colts last week and escaped Jacksonville with a win. Still, those victories should have been more comfortable. Indianapolis is starting 39-year-old Joe Flacco, and the Jaguars are a two-win team.
Some of these games have also been weird. The officials missed a facemask call on Darnold in Los Angeles. A week later, Grover Stewart hit him in the head on a fumble against Indianapolis, and the referees picked up the flag. One of Jacksonville’s interceptions was also questionable and probably shouldn’t have stood after review.
Still, the Vikings are letting the officials control the game’s outcome because they’re no longer blowing teams out. They beat the New York Giants 28-6 and the Houston Texans 34-7 early in the season. Their margin of victory indicated that they were different than the 13-win team from two years ago, which finished with a negative point differential. They felt like a genuine playoff team.
That is starting to change, though. Losing to the Detroit Lions made sense because they faced Ben Johnson’s offense without Blake Cashman. However, the Los Angeles Rams game felt like a home loss because of how many Vikings fans were in the stands. The Jacksonville game also felt like a home game, and they were one Jaguars drive from losing against an inferior team. Minnesota is one of two teams that have produced 28 first downs and failed to score a touchdown. Only two teams have possessed the ball more than 42:19 and lost.
The core issue with Darnold’s regression is that no easy solution exists. Mullens isn’t a viable placement, and McCarthy is out for the year. Darnold must continue throwing to Jefferson; he just needs to throw better balls. The Vikings can beat the Colts and Jaguars playing like this, but they’ll have trouble against better opponents later in the season.
It’s Week 10, and Darnold is regressing. Something needs to change quickly, or the Vikings will lose an opportunity to capitalize on a surprising start to their season.
