Week 1 of the NFL is the best. We get the only truly meaningful data sample we’ve had since the end of the previous season to determine how good or bad these teams will be — and it’s also likely to mean absolutely nothing a few weeks from now. Week 1 is our first glimpse at reality after months of speculation and theorizing.
However, more often than not, it’s a complete and utter mirage.
Still, it sure feels great to start with one in the win column. Mirage or not, it counts the same.
Last Sunday felt like proof of concept for the Minnesota Vikings’ new chapter. Maybe they aren’t Super Bowl contenders. However, for a team transitioning to what it hopes will be a contender as soon as next season, it was reassuring to see some of the key pieces coming together. And while the sample size may only be one game, it seems like this free-agency class is coming together.
After six seasons of mediocrity, Sam Darnold had the best game of his pro career. He dealt the ball to his playmakers and played smart football within Kevin O’Connell‘s system. Aaron Jones averaged over seven yards a carry. Andrew Van Ginkel had a sack and a sensational pick-six to suck the last bit of life out of the New York Giants’ offense.
Jonathan Greenard had a quiet stat line, but perhaps the funniest quote of the day:
We kind of started to feel a little bit bad for him as we’re still just completely just taking away everything he wants to do. Hey, it’s good to be on the other side of it, and it’s our job to not be on that side of it.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has a spotty draft record. For every GM, the draft comes down to varying probabilities of dart throws; Adofo-Mensah had a few hits that became starters (Jordan Addison, Ed Ingram) and several misses he’ll seemingly never live down like Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth. On the other hand, Adofo-Mensah has thus far proven himself legitimately good at maximizing free agency.
That’s important for two primary reasons:
- The Vikings are at the onset of a period when they have minimal draft capital.
- They also have a starting quarterback on a rookie contract that frees up oodles of cap space.
Notably, Adofo-Mensah didn’t overspend for the top players on the market, either. Instead, he identified good values that fit his coaching staff’s schemes. He didn’t overspend on any free agents this year, and they all look like they could be major values this season — at least based on what they did in Week 1.
However, if you’re worried that Minnesota’s performance was just a Week 1 mirage against a terrible, crumbling franchise, then I have good news: We should get all the answers we need on Sunday. The San Francisco 49ers are coming to town and can expose teams as paper tigers.
But they’re not infallible. The Vikings pulled off the upset in 2023, and that was without Justin Jefferson. So, crazier things have happened. San Francisco will be without their franchise superstar, Christian McCaffrey, who will likely sit out with his calf/Achilles injury. That has led some fans to ponder how the Vikings could pull off the upset.
But as we saw on Monday Night Football this past week, this 49ers team arguably has the best roster in the league, even without McCaffrey. There’s not much in the way of obvious, glaring weaknesses. It will be a major gut check for Minnesota’s toughness and upside. If the Vikings are going to be successful, it’ll likely come down to those four aforementioned free agents having another big day this Sunday.
I doubt Aaron Jones will run for seven yards a carry this week. Still, if he’s effective and efficient, it would make a tremendous difference in this offense’s ability to sustain drives. It would also keep San Francisco’s star edge Nick Bosa out of obvious pass-rush situations. While Trent Williams is a nearly impenetrable wall at left tackle, the same can’t be said for the 49ers’ right tackle Colton McKivitz. Van Ginkel or Greenard could have a big day if Flores can manufacture one-on-ones against McKivitz.
The Niners will also test Sam Darnold. No one on this team knows better than him how good the 49ers can be after he spent last season with them. The juxtaposition between what Darnold faced against New York and what he’ll face on Sunday is something akin to when a college team opens the season against Rice and then plays Texas in Week 2. The pressure is on Darnold to prove Week 1 wasn’t a fluke.
Of all the potential Week 1 mirages, none feels quite as unsustainable as Darnold’s. He finished 19 of 24 for 208 yards and two touchdowns. However, the numbers don’t do Darnold justice for how well he played last Sunday. He looked like a quality NFL starter in Week 1, and the haters can’t fathom him repeating anything close to that this Sunday. Anything is possible if Darnold can continue that level of efficiency and execution.
Minnesota’s goals for this year should mostly be about identifying a proof of concept for the franchise’s direction beyond this year. I’m excited about the direction of this team, led by what could be a foundational free-agency class. However, I’m also interested in seeing how they’ll hold up to a stress test like they’ll see on Sunday. Even if they can’t pull off the upset, looking like you belong on the same field would prove the Vikings are heading in the right direction.
