Jordan Love found Dontayvion Wicks in the back of the end zone on third-and-one to cut the Minnesota Vikings’ lead to 28-14 with 11:38 left in Minnesota’s 31-29 win on Sunday. Two plays later, Keisean Nixon stripped Sam Darnold to give the Green Packers the ball at Minnesota’s 20-yard line. Josh Jacobs ran the ball for seven yards, and Love hit Tucker Kraft for a touchdown to make it 28-20.
Matt LaFleur did the analytically savvy thing and went for two. Love found Kraft again, making the score 28-22. Ten minutes and 16 seconds remained in the game. The Vikings had jumped out to a 28-0 lead with 5:28 left in the second half. It was the largest lead Minnesota has ever had at Lambeau Field and the largest game margin in the Kevin O’Connell era. However, the Packers were a touchdown away from taking the lead.
Still, according to ESPN’s score predictor, the Vikings had an 83.1% chance of winning the game.
Once they built a 28-0 lead, ESPN gave the Vikings a 98% chance to win. ESPN’s percentage never dipped below 81.7%. That seems impossible, given that the Packers outscored Minnesota 29-3 in the second half. It was a road game in a hostile environment. Green Bay had Jordan Love back and employs a talented defense. Why wasn’t the game ever in question?
The closest equivalent game recently is Minnesota’s 36-28 Thursday night win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on December 10, 2021. The Vikings had a 99% chance of winning after building a 29-0 lead over the Steelers late in the third. Pittsburgh stormed back and nearly scored at the end of the game to tie it, but Minnesota never had less than an 82.5% chance of winning it. They always got the ball back when the Steelers scored and could have won it in overtime if they had tied it.
Sometimes, our eyes deceive us. We carry the baggage of Minnesota’s gut-wrenching history; everyone is on guard because of its lack of a Super Bowl victory and ugly losses. We still remember that Week 1 loss in Cincinnati three years ago when Dalvin Cook fumbled in overtime, and the Vikings lost after tying the game late. The same goes for Minnesota’s playoff loss to the New York Giants in O’Connell’s first year when Kirk Cousins threw to T.J. Hockenson behind the sticks.
That 13-win season never seemed genuine because the Vikings won 11 one-score games. Minnesota’s 4-0 record is encouraging. However, the Vikings started 5-0 in 2016, only to finish 8-8. Like the mirror on your car that warns you that the objects in it are closer than they appear, we tend to see any potential comeback fatalistically. Any good start is just a setup for failure.
However, this Vikings team is different. They beat the New York Giants 28-6, then shocked the NFL world by beating the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 and the Houston Texans 34-7. The Niners and Texans are Super Bowl favorites; Vegas projected the Vikings to win 6.5 games this year. Minnesota is two-thirds of the way there now. The Vikings could have beaten San Francisco by more had Fred Warner not picked Darnold when they were driving in the second quarter and Aaron Jones not fumbled near the goal line late in the third.
These aren’t Zimmer’s Vikings; they aren’t playing tight. They also aren’t the 2022 team. O’Connell is trying to instill a killer mentality in the team. He said that’s why he went for it on fourth-and-one at Green Bay’s four-yard line. O’Connell could have kicked a field goal to increase Minnesota’s lead to 34-22, but he wanted to reinforce his faith in his players.
“[I have] belief in those guys to go execute in those moments because I know that they believe in themselves,” said O’Connell. “I’m just really stating the obvious inside that locker room and confirming to them that I believe in them, I love them, and we’re going to ride together. We’re going to stay aggressive while being smart.
“There’s always a line there, but I’m really proud of our guys.”
Two years ago, that line was a tightrope. This year, it’s a standard.
“We feel the confidence, for sure,” said Justin Jefferson, who finished with six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. “Just going out there and hearing the play calling. Just seeing the amount of talent we have out there on that field.
“Especially when it’s me, J.A. (Jordan Addison), and Speedy (Jalen Nailor) in the package. That’s definitely something that I know you defenses don’t want to see. Once we all get healthy and this team is fully healthy, I feel like we’re going to be in a great spot.”
Therein lies the hope with the Vikings. They’ve won four games in the hardest part of their schedule. Minnesota must play the New York Jets in London next week, then the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams after the bye. However, things lighten up in the middle of the schedule, and they should get star players like Hockenson back.
“[We’ve] got to continue to just grow as a team,” said O’Connell. “It’s still very, very early in the season. By no means do we feel like we’re anything close to the finished product [that] we’re going to be.
“Got to keep getting better every single day and have a laser focus right where our feet are pointing to try to improve. Because this league, every single Sunday is an ultimate challenge regardless of who you’re playing.”
The Vikings must close out games like they did against the Giants and Houston. If they do, they won’t need to look in the rearview mirror, given their start and their talent. They’ll know they’ve left everyone in the dust.
