Former Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman reached for Christian Ponder at 12th overall in 2011, and he believes the Vikings will do it again. On a recent CBS Sports podcast, Spielman said that Minnesota will overpay if J.J. McCarthy is the only quarterback left on the board.
“They’re going to have to give (picks 11 and 23) and their 2025 first, plus some more draft capital,” he said. “I think J.J. (McCarthy) will be a good pro, but Minnesota will overpay to get him. At this point, they don’t have a choice (given their current QB room).”
Perhaps the former Vikings GM is trying to incite purple panic, but he’s using sound impulse-buying logic. Everyone’s been standing in the grocery store checkout line hungry. Maybe you have a little extra money in your pocket because something you wanted wasn’t in stock.
Suddenly, you reach for a Snickers.
At a recent press conference, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that he acquired the 23rd pick from the Houston Texans as insurance. But it’s also draft capital he can use to package with the 11th pick and next year’s first to get Drake Maye. However, the New England Patriots may choose to select Maye, or whoever falls to them at No. 3. Or New England’s asking price may be too high for the third pick.
“We want to make sure that we set ourselves up for a potential better look if a team picks up the phone,” Adofo-Mensah said. “Because they don’t have to pick up the phone, but we also want to set ourselves up for being in a really good situation if they don’t.”
Daniel Jeremiah has the Vikings moving up to No. 4 to take McCarthy in his latest mock draft. “After their recent trade with the Texans,” he wrote, “it seems the Vikings are situated to aggressively move up to draft Kirk Cousins’ replacement. The [Arizona] Cardinals trade down, bypassing a chance to pick the first receiver off the board, but they address the position later in Round 1.”
Maye seems like the consensus second- or third-best quarterback behind Caleb Williams, who the Chicago Bears likely will take first overall. Many draft experts have the Washington Commanders taking Jayden Daniels second. The Patriots also need a quarterback. But their roster is so depleted that they may be willing to trade with the Vikings to acquire three first-round picks.
However, former Gophers offensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who game-planned against Maye and McCarthy last year, told the Star Tribune that the difference between Maye and McCarthy is a matter of preference.
After seeing both of them, watching them and game planning them, I think they’re both first-round players. If you’re going to look to be more in the drop-back game and throw it, I think Maye has a little bit of an advantage there. If you’re going to be more of a run-game, play-action, throw-the-ball-over-the-top [offense], I think I would probably go the other way.
ESPN’s Matt Bowen believes that the Vikings are the best fit for the former Michigan quarterback.
The Vikings can set up McCarthy as a distributor in Kevin O’Connell‘s defined passing game, using play-action concepts to put him in a position to throw with better timing and rhythm. McCarthy completed 76.3% of his play-action passes last season, putting up a Total QBR of 90.4. Those are outstanding numbers, and the fit works perfectly in Minnesota. Plus, McCarthy has the second-reaction skills as a passer to make plays outside of structure when necessary. He can use his legs to create throwing windows.
Minnesota may move up to take McCarthy, but the Cardinals are going to have a high asking price. Arizona needs a star wideout for Kyler Murray to throw to, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is as surefire a receiver prospect as there has been in years. They may ask for Minnesota’s 2025 first-rounder, assuming they were willing to move it for Maye.
But Maye appears to be a tier above McCarthy. The Vikings hired Josh McCown, who coached Maye in high school. Quarterbacks coaches only have so much say in the process, but prying Maye away from New England appears to be Minnesota’s preferred scenario. Still, the Patriots may not pick up the phone on the draft day. If that’s the case, and teams ask for another first-rounder for the McCarthy pick, the Vikings must consider the walk-away price.
“That’s the hardest part, right?” Adofo-Mensah asked rhetorically at his recent press conference. “It’s, man, if you get the guy right and he’s your answer for 10 years, then there’s no price you probably wouldn’t have paid, right, looking back? … You’ve gotta go and look at the odds of that even happening, and that’s the counterplay.”
Perhaps McCarthy is the perfect fit in O’Connell’s system, and he becomes Minnesota’s franchise quarterback. But it feels more likely that Maye will pan out, making next year’s first-rounder to draft him worth it. Ultimately, the Vikings can’t stand pat. Teams that hold on to their pick and take whoever falls to them end up with inferior quarterback play.
That’s what happened with Ponder, and the Vikings can’t let it happen again. They either need to be aggressive and try to talk New England into the third pick or try to get McCarthy at value. Worst-case scenario, they can trade down and take Michael Penix Jr. Minnesota just can’t get caught in the middle. Unlike that Snickers bar in the grocery aisle, quarterbacks are expensive, and overpaying for one won’t satisfy anyone.
