At this point, a vast majority of Skoldiers would consider it a devastating disappointment if Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can’t find a way to trade up for a premier quarterback in the upcoming NFL Draft. With the 11th- and 23rd-overall picks, the Minnesota Vikings have the necessary immediate ammunition to be legitimate players in the trade-up market.
But what if the New York Giants, Denver Broncos, and/or Las Vegas Raiders blow non-quarterback-needy franchises like the Arizona Cardinals (at fourth overall) and Los Angeles Chargers (at fifth) away with alternative offers? In that scenario, would the Vikings re-create the Christian Ponder nightmare by reaching for need and taking Bo Nix or Michael Penix at 11th overall? Ultimately, it takes two to tango. And there’s still a possibility that the Vikings find themselves left at the trade-up alter on the night of April 25.
Since taking the big chair at TCO Performance Center, Adofo-Mensah has spoken at length about having a plan for the myriad scenarios that come with the draft. So, let’s dissect a possible path the Vikings could take if they can’t trade up for Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, or J.J. McCarthy.
Unless Minnesota has a higher grade than the consensus on their evaluations for Nix or Penix, it seems unlikely they would go quarterback at 11th overall. As much as Vikings fans don’t want to hear it, a trade down from 11th overall makes sense. If Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner doesn’t make it to 11th, trading back and accumulating a second-round pick would give the Vikings a Day 2 resource they parted with to get the 23rd pick.
By executing a trade in which their initial pick comes in the back half of the first round while simultaneously picking up a second-rounder, the Vikings would be in a prime position to properly address their biggest need: interior defensive front.
Byron Murphy II (Texas) and Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois) are this class’s crown jewel interior pass rushers. Murphy and Newton were some of the best defensive tackles in college football last year at getting after opposing quarterbacks. Excluding postseason play, Newton had the most pressures by a Power Five defensive tackle with 43. Murphy ranked fourth with 36 pressures.
What differentiates the two hog mollies up front is Murphy’s efficiency when rushing the passer and Newton’s ability to stay on the field. With Texas’ defensive front’s depth, they rotated Murphy far more frequently than Illinois did with Newton. While playing 170 fewer pass rush snaps than Newton in the regular season, Murphy recorded seven fewer pressures than his Fighting Illini counterpart.
Murphy’s 15.5% pressure rate led all Power Five defensive tackles, with Newton registering a respectable 10.7% pressure rate. It needs to be mentioned that Newton led all Power Five defensive tackles with 402 regular-season pass rush snaps and 342 snaps against the run. Considering that no position in football rotates more often than the interior defensive line, Newton’s lack of missed snaps is admirable.
When considering Murphy’s Power Five-best efficiency as an interior pass rusher and Newton’s iron-man ability to stay on the field more than any other Power Five defensive tackle, you can make a compelling argument about which is more valuable when translating both to the NFL.
Things could get interesting for Adofo-Mensah after Minnesota finally addresses its defensive front with either a first- or second-round pick for the first time since 2013. At 23rd overall, could the Vikings move down once again? By trading down to pick up yet another second-rounder while also potentially parting with one of their fourth-round picks, Minnesota could use those extra second-rounders (and possibly a fourth) to trade back up into the end of the first round.
That way, the Vikings could use their second first-rounder on a corner, such as Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry, Clemson’s Nate Wiggins, or Iowa’s Cooper DeJean. They could also use that second first-rounder to double down on their defensive front with an edge rusher, such as UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, Missouri’s Darius Robinson, or Penn State’s Chop Robinson.
Ideally, the Vikings would identify two dance partners interested in trading up. Whether that’s trading down twice from No. 11 or both No. 11 and No. 23, the Vikings could use those second-round picks acquired by trading down to trade back into one of the last picks of the first round to select Nix or Penix.
Like most of you, I’m of the opinion that trading up for Maye, Daniels, or McCarthy is the preferred path. But in the scenario where other quarterback-hungry organizations beat the Vikings to the trade-up punch, trading down and addressing their defensive front and/or cornerback room while trading back up to use a third first-round pick on Nix or Penix seems like the most logical contingency plan.
