The NFL is not just a war; it’s a battle royale, especially when quarterback-needy teams scramble to be the first to secure their franchise quarterback. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is preparing for a bidding war, fought with assets and draft capital rather than swords and arrows. But for this front office, their livelihoods (and your fandom) are still worth fighting for. And they may be wise to take a page out of Sun Tzu’s playbook from The Art of War.
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Ever since the Minnesota Vikings swung their trade with the Houston Texans, fans in Minnesota have felt quite confident that their two first-round picks this year give them a leg up on the competition. The Vikings seem to have the ammunition that QB-needy teams like the Denver Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders can’t match. However, it’s dangerous to underestimate the enemy, especially a desperate one.
So, let’s put ourselves in the minds of the enemy for this exercise. Let’s pretend I’m the general manager of one of these teams outside Minnesota. How do I beat their offer? What can I give a team like the Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, or Los Angeles Chargers to make myself even more appealing than the Vikings as a trade partner? How can I leave Kwesi Adofo-Mensah without a date to the big dance, forcing him to take his cousin instead? (Which, in this analogy, would be Sam Darnold.)
First, let’s establish the baseline offer. Draft experts believe Minnesota is willing to part with at least the No. 11 and No. 23 picks this year and an additional first-round pick in 2025. That seems like a steep price compared to many trade charts. However, it also feels likely compared to the price the San Francisco 49ers paid for a similar jump to get Trey Lance in 2021 (three first-round picks over three consecutive seasons and a third-round pick).
According to the Rich Hill trade chart, Minnesota’s three picks are worth an estimated value of 741. The Rich Hill model generally downgrades the value of a pick by a round compared to the previous year, which Hill has said isn’t a perfect valuation. Still, it provides a rough estimate.
Out of the teams with a puncher’s chance of taking a swing to move up the board for a quarterback, the field has narrowed to essentially three: the Raiders, Broncos, and New York Giants. So, how would each of those teams go about beating out Minnesota?
That’s a pretty steep haul for a team with the kind of roster issues Vegas has. But if they were willing to do it, they could surpass Minnesota’s offer in terms of sheer points. Each team will have its own model, and I’m not sure that the 2026 first-rounder gets downgraded as much as Rich Hill suggests. A second and a third this year are huge gets, on top of securing the future firsts. That could be enticing.
I’m not sure Vegas is in a position as a franchise to make a move like this. Still, a rookie quarterback could do much worse than having Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers as his targets.
Admittedly, I have no idea if Denver would trade Patrick Surtain II, and my guess as to how other teams would value him is just that, a guess. Surtain has been an elite player but not quite as dominant as Jalen Ramsey was with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Therefore, I have lowered his value to less than what Jacksonville got for Ramsey. Even with that in mind, he feels worth a top-five pick in a non-QB market. Any offer involving Patrick Surtain II and Denver’s No. 12 pick will be competitive with Minnesota’s offer.
I’ll be fascinated to see if that option of trading Surtain is on the table. Denver desperately needs a franchise quarterback, and I’m sure its front office would love to reset the clock on their team-building by bringing in a new quarterback. However, in light of the Russell Wilson debacle, the Broncos aren’t primed with many draft assets to make this happen. They’d likely need to pawn off their best player to make ends meet in this quarterback market.
Plus, Sean Payton loves to destroy good things for the Vikings. Therefore, it feels pretty spot-on for him to sell the future of the team away to screw Minnesota.
The Giants feel like an enigma, wrapped in a mystery, smothered in secret sauce.
I have no clue if they’re desperate enough to make an aggressive move up the board for a Daniel Jones replacement. But if they do, they feel like a safe option for any team in the top-five that wants a chance at a premier receiver or offensive tackle at pick No. 6. Assuming they move on, Daniel Jones also becomes an interesting trade candidate, which could help them re-accrue draft capital.
The Giants have always felt like the team you needed to jump to feel safe getting a quarterback. However, if you’re not careful, they may jump up ahead instead. Some teams like Arizona may be uncomfortable falling to No. 11 and getting out of the Marvin Harrison Jr./Malik Nabers/Rome Odunze sweepstakes.
When you look at it, Minnesota’s draft capital isn’t all that different from other teams, and they had to move that capital to get picks 11 and 23. They’re not so flush with additional assets that they’re in their own tier, especially if they want to be reasonable.
Still, Adofo-Mensah has set the stage to go as insane as he wants to. There’s no price Minnesota couldn’t match or surpass if they really want to throw caution to the wind; they just need to be careful not to cripple themselves too far along the way. But ask the Houston Texans if they’re concerned about overpaying after they picked Stroud and moved up again.
If they find that franchise quarterback like we’re all hoping, no one will remember the picks they spent along the way.
