The Minnesota Vikings have had a busy offseason. They’ve shored up their pass rush, bolstered their defense, and are searching for their franchise quarterback. But while they’ve found a solution to some of their deficiencies, they still have some holes to fill.
Minnesota’s running game has struggled since Kevin O’Connell arrived two years ago, and the Vikings did their best to solve it by adding Aaron Jones. However, Jones’ checkered injury history and the lack of depth behind him could mean the Vikings should look for one more running back, and they could find their answer in the NFL draft.
Over the last several years, the running game has become the NFL’s version of eating your broccoli. Teams want to throw the ball all over the place, and receivers and quarterbacks get more of the headlines (unless you’re playing fantasy football). But the running game still has value, and it’s helped teams make deep runs into the postseason.
Consider the two teams that were in last year’s Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers and Kyle Shanahan made a living out of late-round quarterbacks for years until they saw a window to trade for Christian McCaffrey.
Since coming over from Carolina midway through the 2022 season, McCaffrey has run for 2,205 yards, 20 touchdowns, and added 119 catches for 1,028 yards and 11 touchdowns in 27 games. With one of the best running games in the NFL, San Francisco went to the NFC Championship game in 2022 and was in the Super Bowl last season.
Isiah Pacheco stood on the other sideline. Pacheco didn’t cost the absurd draft capital that McCaffrey did as a seventh-round pick out of Rutgers. However, he was just as effective with a career 53.6% success rate – the percentage of runs where a running back gets 40% of yards needed on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down.
There were other factors. San Francisco had its version of The Avengers on offense, and Patrick Mahomes cosplayed as Thanos for the Kansas City Chiefs. Still, the running game played a key role, league-wide. Eight of the top-10 rushing offenses in expected points added made the playoffs last season. Three of those teams – the Baltimore Ravens, the 49ers, and the Detroit Lions – wound up in the conference championship game.
It was a large gap for the Vikings, who haven’t had success on the ground since Mike Zimmer left town. While Zimmer’s preferred strategy was to ride the running game with quantity, O’Connell seeks quality, leaning on his team’s success rate to open up the playbook for the passing game.
But it didn’t work out that way in O’Connell’s first season. The Vikings ranked 27th in expected points added through the run. While Dalvin Cook ran for 1,173 yards and eight touchdowns, his 47.3% success rate ranked 37th among 46 qualifying runners and triggered an overhaul of the ground game last offseason.
The Vikings started by signing road-grader Josh Oliver in free agency. They also re-signed Alexander Mattison, who had an identical success rate to Cook in 2022 on a smaller sample size. Minnesota released Cook in June to save $9 million on the salary cap and gave Mattison the starting job.
It’s unknown whether the Vikings expected Ty Chandler or 2023 seventh-round draft pick DeWayne McBride to ascend to that role, but Mattison’s performance was underwhelming. His 45% success rate ranked 38th among 48 qualifying runners last season. Chandler wasn’t much better, posting a 45.1% rate despite some big games down the stretch.
While Minnesota’s ground game improved to 20th in expected points added, it wasn’t enough to help the offense – especially with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson missing extended time due to injury. Improving the running game didn’t feel like as much of a priority as it did a year ago, but adding Jones gave it a jolt.
Jones was second among qualifying runners and first among running backs with a 62% success rate last season, and his career success rate of 54.9% suggests it wasn’t a fluke. The Green Bay Packers’ rushing offense only ranked 17th in expected points added. However, it was also a key component that helped them get into the playoffs and upset the Dallas Cowboys, with Jones running for 118 yards and three touchdowns.
It’s tempting to add Jones to the running back room and declare the running game fixed. But there are a couple of factors to consider. Jones, 30, is older than Dalvin Cook, who hit the running back wall last season and saw his success rate drop to 38.8% with the New York Jets.
Jones also had a hamstring injury in Week 1 and an MCL sprain in Week 8 last season. Although he’s a year removed from playing all 17 games with the Packers, Draft Sharks listed Jones with an 87% chance of injury in 2024. However, Jones also has a history of producing through minor injuries.
Still, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to find some depth. Chandler flashed at times last season but never seemed to gain the complete trust of his coaching staff. While he could make a leap going into his third year, adding Jones didn’t seem to be a vote of confidence.
There’s also McBride, who earned a starter’s grade from the Vikings during last year’s draft process but failed to make the team out of training camp. Maybe McBride learned from a similar “redshirt year” that Chandler had in his rookie season. Still, Minnesota can’t bank on that after struggling to adapt to the next level.
With Jones as their big swing in free agency, it could lead Minnesota to the draft. Although there isn’t a mega prospect like Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson, and the Vikings have bigger needs, they could wait until the later rounds and hope to find some depth.
A prospect like Braelon Allen could make sense as a complement in the same vein that Jones had with A.J. Dillon in Green Bay. Trey Benson could also be the dual-threat burner who could learn behind Jones for a season, or perhaps Marshawn Lloyd could be a gem for his knack of creating yards after contact.
Whichever prospect suits the Vikings, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to use a lottery ticket to improve the running game and help O’Connell’s offense find another gear next season.
