We’re just past the halfway point of the NFL’s regular season. That means we’re starting to understand how good and, in cases like the Chicago Bears, how bad teams are this year.
Teams are beginning to reveal their true colors. Despite all their offensive firepower, the Cincinnati Bengals may be unable to overcome their defense and make a playoff push. The Arizona Cardinals may be more than just a feisty spoiler team. And perhaps Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons are just Kirk Cousins and the old Minnesota Vikings in different uniforms.
Yet some teams, like this iteration of the Vikings, remain a mystery. Talking heads will discuss whether teams are “contenders” or “pretenders.” The Vikings are one of the fun teams to debate for these segments. After starting 5-0, the Vikings have gone 2-2 since their bye week. After losing to the Detroit Lions, the inferior Los Angeles Rams beat them on Thursday Night Football, and their two wins have come against the 4-6 Indianapolis Colts and the two-win Jacksonville Jaguars.
Further muddying Minnesota’s contender status is how they have won. They beat the Colts and Jaguars by a combined 13 points. And Sam Darnold, the former draft bust who won Offensive Player Of the Month in September, has turned the ball over six times in those two games. Oh yeah, and it’s the Vikings, the team known for hot starts throughout the years, only to come crashing back to Earth down the stretch.
So, have the Vikings reverted to being an average team that is only capable of squeaking out victories over inferior opponents? Looking beyond the final score, the Vikings may be closer to the team we saw over the season’s first month than their 13-win counterparts from two years ago.
Although they only have an eight-point edge over the past two weeks, Minnesota has dominated the rest of the box score. They outgained the Colts and Jaguars 817-370 in yardage. That included two of the offense’s three highest-yardage outputs of the season. The defense’s two best yardage totals of the season have come in each game, with Jacksonville’s 143-yard output being the lowest in two seasons under Brian Flores.
The Vikings have also run more plays in the past two games than at any other similar stretch all season. They have run 153 total plays on offense and only 92 on defense. Minnesota has had a time-of-possession advantage of 38 minutes and 26 seconds over the last 120 minutes of gameplay.
However, Darnold’s six turnovers have directly impacted scoring:
- Turnover 1: Facing third-and-three at the Colts’ 16-yard line on Minnesota’s first possession. Darnold throws a pass into the end zone that has no chance of being completed. Will Reichard, who hadn’t missed all year to that point, doesn’t get a chance to put the Vikings up 3-0.
- Turnover 2: First-and-10 at the Colts’ 47-yard line in the second quarter. Darnold drops back to pass and fumbles when defensive lineman Grover Stewart hits him and fumbles. Cornerback Kenny Moore returns the fumble for a touchdown to give the Colts a 7-0 lead, which they take into halftime.
- Turnover 3: First-and-10 at the Vikings’ 23-yard line, leading 14-7. Byron Murphy, Jr. just intercepted a pass, allowing the Vikings to build a comfortable lead. However, Darnold throws an interception on the next play. The Colts’ drive goes nowhere, but they kick a field goal to make the game 14-10.
- Turnover 4: First-and-10 at Jacksonville’s 30-yard line, trailing 7-3. Darnold forces a pass to Justin Jefferson that the Jaguars deflect and intercept, stalling what could have been a second scoring drive in as many possessions.
- Turnover 5: Second-and-goal at the Jaguars’ seven-yard line, trailing 7-3. The Vikings have moved the ball 76 yards on 16 plays, eating up over ten minutes of possession. Darnold throws an interception in the middle of the end zone intended for Jefferson, taking points off the board.
- Turnover 6: Third-and-four at Jacksonville’s 18-yard line, trailing 7-3. Minnesota has moved the ball again, 52 yards in six plays. Darnold tries hitting Jefferson on a deep-out, and Jacksonville picks him. Again, they leave points on the field in field goal range.
Even if the five drives ending in interceptions stalled and resulted in field goals and the drive ending in a fumble ended with a punt, the Vikings would be looking at a plus-25-point swing. That would match the production of the other 147 plays they ran, giving them convincing wins over bad teams.
The metrics still view the Vikings positively despite their sloppy performances. They still lead the league in defensive expected points added (EPA) and defensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Minnesota rose to the top of Total Team DVOA in Week 5. Even though they have fallen since then, they still rank fourth in the league and trail only the Lions (first) in the NFC.
Darnold has also been solid outside of those turnovers. Despite the five interceptions over the past two games, he still ranks second in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) among passers with at least 128 attempts this season at +5.8%. His +12.9% mark against the Colts was his second-highest of the season. He was +4.9% against Jacksonville, his sixth-highest of the year.
Finally, Sam Hoppen of Fantasy Pros releases weekly charts showing how “bad” teams got beat. He uses the net success rate of offenses to determine a victory’s dominance. Minnesota’s victory over the Colts was the third-most dominant victory of Week 9, while their win over the Jaguars was the second-most dominant victory of Week 10.
That doesn’t mean that fans can’t be frustrated by Darnold’s turnovers. Still, the Vikings are playing much more like a contending team right now than a “pretending” team that an opponent could easily dismantle in the early part of the playoffs. Fortunately, evidence from the early part of the season shows they can dominate the box score and the metrics. They’re likely better than the 13-win team from two years ago, but they must prove they’re a contender.
