In hindsight, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s approach to the 2022 draft shouldn’t surprise anyone. We knew he came from Wall Street and leaned into probability and analytics when he worked for the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns. He took over the Minnesota Vikings to be a CEO rather than a super-scout like Rick Spielman. “Our approach to building this roster will be intentional, thoughtful, thorough, and detailed — well planned,” he said after taking the job in January 2022. “We know the destination: It’s sustained success and championships.”
He wondered aloud why it was taboo to trade within the division when he sent the 12th-overall pick to the Detroit Lions and pick No. 33 to the Green Bay Packers in 2022. Jameson Williams scored his first career touchdown against the Vikings and paraded around Ford Field like he broke Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record. Christian Watson got behind Minnesota’s defense and dropped a sure touchdown in Week 1. No matter. The Vikings got value.
The issue with trading those picks wasn’t what Detroit and Green Bay did with them. Williams may have some promise, and Watson has been good while healthy, but the Vikings have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Instead, it’s that Brian Flores was working with an undermanned defense because three of Adofo-Mensah’s first five picks haven’t panned out.
The Vikings took Lewis Cine, an athletic and explosive safety out of Georgia, with the 32nd pick, Andrew Booth in the second round, and Akayleb Evans in the fourth. They picked up Ed Ingram in the second and Brian Asamoah in the third. Ingram has been inconsistent at guard, but he’s part of one of Minnesota’s best offensive lines in recent memory. Asamoah showed out in his rookie season, but Ivan Pace Jr. usurped his role last year. However, Cine fractured his leg in the 2022 London game, and Booth battled injuries in college and hasn’t stayed healthy. Evans has gotten the most playing time, but Flores benched him for undrafted Jaylin Williams late in the season.
Every general manager must balance budget and production. The NFL is a multi-billion dollar business. But it has a salary cap, and owners are often short on patience. Unlike in other sports, the teams in the biggest markets can’t outspend their competition to win. But owners and fans also expect their teams to be competitive almost every year, considering how quickly good management and coaching can turn a franchise around. The Wilfs are notoriously patient owners who spend the requisite money to win. But they won’t wait around forever. Therefore, the Vikings enter a pivotal offseason that could affect the franchise for years to come.
Kirk Cousins’ contract voids on March 13, and he has over $48 million in dead cap for the next four seasons. The Vikings can turn the dead money from his void years into salary if they sign him before his contract voids. Otherwise, Cousins’ money will count against Minnesota’s cap until 2027. Cousins is reportedly looking for $90 million this offseason, which could reflect his market. It’s not hard to see the Atlanta Falcons or Pittsburgh Steelers offering him that kind of money, either on a two- or three-year contract.
The Vikings would probably like to get Cousins on a one-year deal or avoid fully guaranteeing the second year. Cousins will turn 35 next season, and he’s coming off an Achilles injury. He’s a pocket passer who relies on his guile as much as his athleticism, but any player coming off an Achilles injury carries risk.
Furthermore, Minnesota is likely looking for a succession plan. What if they draft Michael Penix or J.J. McCarthy, and they’re ready in a year? They don’t won’t want to pay Cousins $45 million as a backup, and it may be hard to trade him at that number — especially if he has a no-move clause. The Vikings are a good landing spot for any young quarterback. But Adofo-Mensah will want as much cap space as he can to work with to maximize a quarterback on a rookie contract and put him in the best position to succeed.
Adofo-Mensah could balk at Cousins’ price and sign a stopgap like Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, or Sam Darnold (?). But Tannehill, Minshew, or Darnold would have to learn Kevin O’Connell’s complicated offense and would be less productive than Cousins. Does Adofo-Mensah want to sign a lesser quarterback while Cousins still occupies $28 million in dead cap space? Not only is that poor value, but it puts a lot of pressure on whichever quarterback the Vikings draft this year. What if he’s not ready to go after one season?
Even if the Vikings don’t pay Cousins, it doesn’t mean they’re getting value at quarterback. They’d have to overwhelm three quarterback-needy teams — the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, or New England Patriots — to get a top-three pick. Therefore, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels are probably off-limits. Minnesota will likely have to use their No. 11 pick or trade up for Penix or McCarthy, given that teams overdraft quarterbacks. No matter which approach the Vikings take, they will have difficulty getting value under center.
Adofo-Mensah might have to abandon value altogether this offseason. The Vikings can justifiably sign Cousins to a two-year deal, ideally somewhere in the $70 million range and not fully guaranteed, and draft a quarterback. Cousins has said he doesn’t want to start negotiations until March, likely because it’s a relatively straightforward conversation. He wants to know if Minnesota will offer him something similar to Atlanta or Pittsburgh. And even if the Vikings sign Cousins, they still need a succession plan for him.
Maybe Adofo-Mensah’s strategy was to overspend on a quarterback all along. He paid a premium for T.J. Hockenson and must break the bank for Justin Jefferson. Danielle Hunter will also demand a handsome salary. Perhaps he ponies up at quarterback, receiver, tight end, and defensive end and spends less everywhere else. It’s a viable plan, but it makes it that much more unfortunate that he didn’t get value in the 2022 draft.
