The Minnesota Twins took two of three from the Houston Astros on the road to improve their record to 33-26 in early June. However, the New York Yankees swept them in the Bronx, and the Pittsburgh Pirates shut them out in the first two games at PNC Park. In a topsy-turvy season, the Twins came home after a 3-6 road trip, knowing they still had to make up ground in the AL Central.
Pablo López looked like an ace last time the Twins were in Houston, throwing seven scoreless innings in Game 7 at Minute Made Park. However, he has regressed since then. López owns a career-worst 5.11 ERA (77 ERA+) through 16 starts. Unlike López, Chris Paddack has never looked like an ace. Still, he pitched 3.2 scoreless innings in relief against the Astros in October after two Tommy John surgeries and entered the starting rotation this season.
However, like López, Paddack has started the season slowly. After three starts, he owned an 8.36 ERA and has whittled it down to 5.29. Better pitching would stabilize Minnesota’s season, but López and Paddack haven’t pitched their best early this season. Still, there are signs that they’re turning things around. López had 14 strikeouts in eight scoreless innings against the Oakland A’s over the weekend, and Paddack has changed his mechanics to fix his dead arm.
“It’s a long season,” Paddack said after pitching 6.1 scoreless innings against the Colorado Rockies on June 10. “Me and Pablo, when we got back from Pittsburgh, we sat down with each other and were just like, ‘Hey man, you have 20 starts, I have 19, how are we going to change this around? I lean on you, you lean on me, and we have to change something.’
“We started holding each other accountable. Not being a victim out there. ‘Why us? Why is stuff out of our control happening to only us?’”
During his playoff start in Houston, López focused on his breathing between pitches, allowing him to zero in on each delivery and deliver a gem. He shared a quote with Paddack: prepare for the future, learn from the past, and all you can control is the present. They agreed they could not dwell on what had happened or think too far ahead.
They may throw 27 pitches in the first inning, which means they likely will have a shorter start. Still, they can only control the next pitch they throw after they exit the dugout. Maybe the next two batters they face reach base on bloop hits. That means they must get the next hitter out, even if it takes ten pitches and taxes their arm.
López reached a flow state in Oakland, which allowed him to pitch deep into the game and give the bullpen some rest.
“[When] you know that things are flowing, you find yourself executing good pitch after good pitch. [Catcher Christian] Vázquez would ask for a pitch in a location, and that’s where my focus would be, just tunnel vision to that target,” López said. “‘This pitch has purpose. This pitch has meaning.’ It’s just like 100 percent focused on this action right here, right now.”
Paddack has not reached that flow state since his start against Colorado, and his velocity was down again in Oakland. Still, López and Paddack’s underlying numbers indicate that they should positively regress over time. FIP (fielding-independent pitching) measures how well a player has pitched, regardless of the defense behind him. López (3.97) and Paddack (4.25) have lower FIP than their ERA, meaning their ERA should come down over time.
López is the son of medical professionals and was going to go to med school if the Seattle Mariners hadn’t signed him in 2012. He’s naturally studious and uses advanced metrics like FIP, WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), and BABIP (batting average on balls in play) to provide context for how well he’s pitching. Pitchers who give up fewer walks and hits tend to maintain a lower ERA over time, and BABIP accounts for seeing-eye singles and bloopers that fall, even when a pitcher executes his pitches.
Paddack is less statistically inclined. He prefers to focus on pitch delivery and location in the moment to deliver results. Paddack will sometimes check his ERA, but he’s more interested in whether Minnesota wins in the games where he starts. Paddack and López see the game differently, but the common ground between the pitchers is that they keep things simple. López and Paddack have used biomechanics to improve their pitching, and López understands the value of advanced metrics. However, it’s best to narrow down what’s immediately important when they’re on the mound.
“There were a lot of big words thrown at me when it comes to biomechanics, breaking things down, so it was my job to keep things simple,” López said in Oakland. “It was my job to simplify a couple [of] things, so I was able to if I threw 20 pitches, I got the most out of those 20 pitches. On the mound, it was a lot of reminding that confidence should never go down. Confidence should always be there about being specific every pitch.”
It’s a long season, and we won’t know until September whether López and Paddack’s meeting paid dividends. The Twins need López to join Joe Ryan as a 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation, and Paddack must give them good starts to allow the bullpen to operate at its best all year. López and Paddack view the game differently but find common ground in staying present. Preparing for the future and learning from the past is always wise. However, they can only control the next pitch they throw.
