After returning to Target Field with the St. Louis Cardinals, Sonny Gray said he liked his time in the Twin Cities but knew he wouldn’t re-sign with the Minnesota Twins.
“I knew pretty early on throughout the free agency process that this wasn’t going to be a place that I was going to come back to,” Gray said. “As much as I did enjoy it here, as much as I liked it here, as much success as we were starting to have and camaraderie as a team, as soon as the qualifying offer was made, I knew.
“They were very transparent from the get-go, saying, ‘Listen, we do not have the resources to give you a contract, as much as we would like to.’ So, I kind of knew that. Even though we did come back a couple of times and try to work on some things, I kind of knew early on that it wasn’t [happening].”
We do not have the resources. How can a professional baseball team not have the resources to sign a pitcher who finished second in Cy Young voting?
A year after winning their first playoff series since 2002, the Twins announced that they would cut payroll in November. They shaved $35 million off the books, meaning they started the year with a bottom-third payroll in the league. Team finances became the dominant narrative this year, even as Minnesota overcame a 7-13 start to vie for a division title.
Minnesota’s payroll this year is $130 million, lower than the 100-loss Chicago White Sox ($134 million), 80-plus-loss Colorado Rockies ($146 million), and the Seattle Mariners ($148 million), who recently fired their longtime manager after a disappointing season. Worst yet, Gray signed with the Cardinals, who play in a smaller market (21) than the Twins (15) but have a larger payroll ($176 million).
St. Louis represents the higher end of baseball’s middle class; the Twins represent the low end. The biggest-market teams like the New York Mets ($316 million), New York Yankees ($309 million), and Los Angeles Dodgers ($238 million) outspend everyone. Contending teams like the Houston Astros ($255 million) and Philadelphia Phillies ($246 million) also carry large payrolls. The Boston Red Sox ($189 million) represent the lower end of the big spenders.
However, baseball teams can win without spending as much money as the big-market teams. The Kansas City Royals ($119 million), Milwaukee Brewers ($115 million), Baltimore Orioles ($108 million), and Cleveland Guardians ($107 million) have smaller payrolls than the Twins. Still, Minnesota is a mid-market team with a bottom-third payroll, and they’ve lost the benefit of the doubt because of the franchise’s historic frugality.
Carl Pohlad was notoriously parsimonious and frequently threatened to move or contract the team. However, the Twins have spent more money under Jim and Joe Pohlad. Minnesota spent $150 and $156 million on payroll in 2022 and 2023, respectively. They’ve spent $300 million to extend Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Still, they cut payroll a year after their first postseason success in over two decades.
The Twins can build a winning roster on a mid-market budget if pitchers like Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews pan out. Minnesota’s front office has mined small-school pitchers in the later rounds and developed them into major-league starters. Ober (12th round, College of Charleston) is their second-best pitcher, and Festa (13th, Seton Hall) and Matthews (8th, Western Carolina) recently reached the majors.
By constructing a pitching pipeline and complementing it with trades for pitchers like Pablo López and Joe Ryan, the Twins will have a good enough staff to complement a potent lineup. Extending position players is usually less risky than pitchers because they are less likely to suffer career-altering injuries and more likely to be productive in their 30s.
Therefore, they can spend money on franchise cornerstones like Correa and Buxton, eschew risky pitcher contracts, and build a winning roster. However, that only works if they continue to spend on elite position players, meaning they’ll eventually have to extend Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee at the market rate and develop late-round pitchers.
Mid-market teams like the Twins must be creative to compete with the teams in big coastal cities. Even if they spent $150 million this year, they’d be at half the payroll as the Yankees and Mets. Therefore, there’s a gray area. No mid-market owners spend more than $175 million on payroll. However, teams with larger payrolls tend to keep winning rosters together long enough to go on playoff runs.
In a vacuum, the Twins were justified in letting Gray walk. A year after he had a 2.79 ERA and was 55% better than the average major-league pitcher, Gray has a 4.07 ERA and is only 4% better than his peers. Gray, 34, showed signs of fatigue in Minnesota after throwing late into games, and he’s unlikely to get better as he gets older.
The Twins traded 2021 first-rounder Chase Petty, a high school pitcher, for Gray. Then they got a first-round pick in 2024 as compensation for losing him, which is savvy work from the front office. Gray also had a lasting impact on Minnesota’s young pitchers, especially Ryan and Ober.
“A lot of the guys will, whether they know it or not…take something positive from all those things he brings,” said Rocco Baldelli. “He taught some people that whatever it is you need to do to pitch, do it. Don’t worry about what anyone’s thinking about you.”
Fans who believe ownership is spending what they can to win relative to Minnesota’s market size could see moving on from Gray as good business. Why spend $75 million on a declining pitcher when they have young starters on the cusp of reaching the majors? Simeon Woods Richardson, Ober, Festa, and Matthews may fill in behind López for years to come.
However, fans will likely have to see ownership spend on Lewis, Lee, and any other franchise-changing prospect and continue to develop pitching to believe Minnesota’s front office has the resources they need to win. The Cardinals can spend nearly as much as the Red Sox in a small market because they consistently win and have built a nationwide fanbase. Their fans believe ownership is doing everything possible to field a contender. They’ve eliminated the gray area.
