The Minnesota Twins are in a uniquely advantageous position for a contending team. Their top pitching prospect, David Festa, and their No. 2 overall prospect, Brooks Lee, look ready to join the major league roster. They have made plenty of highlights for the Triple-A St. Paul Saints that have circulated on social media and have fans clamoring for the Twins to make the call. More important than the flashy moments, Lee and Festa are also consistently producing at a rate that deserves a chance to reach the majors.
Breaking the seal on a prospect’s big-league debut is a situation that teams take seriously. The service time questions will always be an important factor. Still, regardless of financial circumstances, Derek Falvey must be deliberate when calling up a top prospect. A top young player getting his first big league opportunity will come with big expectations, and a rough start could ruin their confidence or squash the hype from the fanbase.
It’s a fascinating situation, and it looks like Twins fans may be finding out which prospect gets to Target Field first, with Festa reportedly being scratched from his Wednesday afternoon start against the Iowa Cubs.
While both players have earned a chance to reach the majors, Festa’s likely promotion is possible because of a few factors. Chris Paddack’s trip to the injured list will open the door for another arm to enter the big league rotation for at least one start. After Louie Varland’s rough start to the season, some parts of the fanbase have shifted their focus from Varland to Festa’s potential. Varland had been in front of Festa on the Twins rotation hierarchy. It almost doesn’t matter that much who is in front or behind because of how fluid a starting rotation can be due to pitcher injuries.
Lee’s draft status makes him a higher-hyped prospect over Festa. However, the pitcher injuries ultimately look to have given the lead to Festa over Lee in the race to make their big league debut first. The expectation level for Lee is higher because there’s no future ace narrative around Festa despite his rise in the farm system. Compare that to Lee, a high-floor middle infielder who pundits expect to hit like a seasoned pro the moment he reaches the big leagues.
Right or wrong, fans aren’t going to be as patient with Lee as much as they will be with Festa. The Twins top pitching prospect may not have the high draft status, but he has continued to refine his game and has grown from a flier draft pick to a top-100 global prospect (No. 99, according to MLB.com). Mixing in a fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball through his pitch selection.
Festa has become one of Minnesota’s most anticipated pitching prospects over the last few seasons. He owns a 3.77 ERA this year, with a 35 percent strikeout rate and a .259 opponent average over 59.2 innings (14 starts). Under the Twins’ direction, he has gone from averaging 91 MPH on his fastball to a consistent 95 MPH with a good changeup and a nasty slider. While Lee was the top-eight pick, Festa was a 13th-round pick in 2021 from Seton Hall, who used his 6’6” frame to grow in the Bailey Ober mold.
Festa hasn’t just made strides with velocity but also with his control. When throwing, it can be difficult for a tall, long-armed pitcher to control their wingspan. At Seton Hall, Festa averaged 4.2 BB/9. Since he entered the Twins organization, his walk numbers have dipped to a 3.5 BB/9 mark and a 9.7 percent walk rate. If he can pound the strike zone more and more, he has a chance to 25.4 percent K-BB percentage increase.
Ober will be the guy Festa is compared to because of their tall stature and late-round beginnings. They aren’t exactly alike, though. Ober is a fly ball pitcher with a 49 percent fly ball rate. On the other hand, Festa has slowly worked at becoming more of a ground ball pitcher with a 45.5 percent ground ball rate.
It’s not that Lee isn’t undeserving of an opportunity, but Castro has been performing too well at second base to justify a move up. Lee may still need more time to cook at St. Paul. A starting rotation is more fluid, with a higher chance of pitcher injuries. Even last year’s Twins rotation, a top-five 3.87 ERA in baseball, still used eight different starting pitchers throughout the season. Compared to 2024, the Twins have only used six starting pitchers this year, and that number wasn’t going to hold for the rest of the season.
Lee has been slashing .344/.400/.641 with five home runs and a 164 wRC+ for the Saints this season. He can play all over the infield and the high-floor prospect, but he will primarily be a second baseman in Minnesota. It has Twins fans ready for a Lee, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa infield.
The problem for the 8th overall pick in 2022 is that he missed the first two months with a herniated disk and only played in 15 games in St. Paul during the 2024 campaign. Lee’s current numbers are great, but he only played in 38 Triple-A games a season ago. Teams occasionally call up prospects like Lewis with little to no Triple-A track record. However, the depth is much stronger around Lee than when Lewis earned his callup in 2022.
Willi Castro has worked his way from a super-utility man to an everyday player at second base. He has a .795 OPS with six home runs in 2024 while providing speed on the bases. Castro is a switch hitter, taking away any platoon option that Lee could mix in with. Castro has a career-best 87.8 MPH average exit velocity and 48.9 percent swing rate, two important stats that show Castro can sustain his production. The Twins could push Castro back to left field and give Lee second base. But the Austin Martin/Manuel Margot/Trevor Larnach platoon in the corner outfield doesn’t make left field a glaring weakness for the Twins.
Even if Castro struggles or gets injured, Edouard Julien is still in play to get time at second base for the Twins despite his .729 OPS in 18 games with the Saints. His presence on the 40-man roster and track record from last season’s stretch run could also block Lee from a callup.
It’s a luxury for a team like Minnesota to be in a postseason position halfway through a season and have two of the farm system’s top three prospects on the cusp of reaching the big leagues. Lee and Festa have made cases to make their Twins debut sooner rather than later, but it appears that Festa’s first MLB opportunity is imminent. They are going to need a break their way. However, if they want to reach the big league roster, Festa currently has that path of least resistance with the ever-changing nature of starting pitching injuries.
