When healthy, the Detroit Lions have the most complete roster in the NFL.
When healthy.
They are not close to that right now, and that’s why the Green Bay Packers will beat them at Ford Field on Thursday night and keep their slim hopes of an NFC North title alive.
Look, I get it. Even a banged-up Lions team can beat just about every team in the league – and it’s not like the Packers are the picture of health. They will still be without Jaire Alexander, Romeo Doubs, and Edgerrin Cooper.
But the Lions’ defense has been rocked by injuries, to the point where they’ve pilfered multiple players off teams’ practice squads in the last week and even signed veteran safety Jamal Adams off the street and asked him to play linebacker.
Losing Aidan Hutchinson for the season in October started a domino effect, with linebacker Alex Anzalone falling next with a broken arm. They have placed four of their top five linebackers on IR and now will be without nose tackle D.J. Reader and defensive end Josh Paschal. And their offense is not immune: stud left tackle Taylor Decker will also miss this game.
It’s not a coincidence that the Chicago Bears’ offense started to click in the second half on Thanksgiving Day; Lions defenders were dropping like flies. Now here come the Packers, with an offense playing at an entirely different level than Chicago and ready to show that they’ve grown quite a bit since the Week 9 matchup at Lambeau.
After Green Bay’s decades of dominance in this series, Detroit has had the last laugh the past few years, winning five of the last six matchups. They’ve been the more physical, disciplined team. But the Packers are showing signs of closing the gap. Their punishing run game is complemented by an improved defense that no longer allows teams to run it down their throats.
Jeff Hafley’s defense will have its hands full. Detroit’s Sonic & Knuckles backfield can beat you on the ground and through the air. I’m more concerned about their impact as pass catchers tonight: the Pack has been susceptible to running backs in the passing game all season. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can take one to the house anytime. Let’s see if Quay Walker’s improved play continues – they need him to shine tonight.
The Pack will play a lot of zone to try to keep everything in front of them, and that’s where Amon-Ra St. Brown is at his most dangerous; he’s so adept at finding those holes in the defense.
It’s a supreme test for Hafley’s unit, and the goal has to be to limit yards after the catch. Detroit’s offense only managed 17 points in the first meeting. Still, they didn’t need to keep their foot on the pedal – the Pack was in a giving mood that day, from Jordan Love’s devastating pick-six before halftime to the 10 penalties that either stopped Green Bay drives or extended them for the Lions.
To win for the second consecutive time at Ford Field, the Pack will obviously have to play a much cleaner game. They have to avoid turnovers and the head-scratching pre-snap penalties that have plagued the defense lately.
With all the new faces on defense, several new to the team this week, the Lions will have their hands full with Matt LaFleur’s play calling. He will try to confuse them all night with motion and some unscouted looks you know he’s been saving for a rainy day.
The loss of Reader should allow Josh Jacobs to feast early, empowering Love and the play-action game to cook as the game moves along. Love is playing at the level we saw in the second half of ’23. He’ll lean on Jayden Reed, who had a big day in the first matchup, and Christian Watson, whose big play last year on the first snap of the game set the tone for the Turkey Day upset.
Green Bay’s recipe is simple: Make Jared Goff uncomfortable in the pocket. The Lions must feel Decker’s loss, and the Pack’s resurgent pass rush provides hope that they can do enough to force Goff into a couple of mistakes. Take care of the football, and don’t stall momentum with untimely penalties. Test Detroit’s defense where they’re most vulnerable: in the middle of the field.
They’ve won 10 straight, and they’re the Super Bowl favorites, but they’re facing some real adversity and know these two home games against the Pack and Buffalo Bills won’t be easy. When injuries have decimated your front seven, the last thing you want to see is an explosive offense led by a surging quarterback, and that’s what they face in Love and then Josh Allen in these next two games.
A win by the Pack likely won’t mean anything in the standings. They would need to run the table and hope the Lions stumble a couple more times. But a win tonight would mean everything for the confidence of this young, ascending team. Up next are the Seattle Seahawks, another prime-time road test in what might be a playoff preview.
It’s that time of year when the Packers seem to start getting their act together, and, by good fortune, they’re facing a team counting on several understudies.
Aweem away, aweem away. The Lions sleep tonight.
Packers 30
Lions 27