Tua Tagovailoa has been waiting a long time for this game. You know he circled it on the calendar the moment the schedule was released.
Once you get a reputation in the NFL, it’s tough to shake it. And for Tua, playing games in cold weather is like an albatross around his neck. The Hawaii native is tired of hearing that he’s 0-7 in games when the temperature is under 30 degrees. He’s tired of hearing how he and his offense wilt whenever they can see their breath and their toes are numb.
He spoke this week about “killing narratives,” and he’ll get a chance to do just that when he brings his red-hot Dolphins to Lambeau on Thanksgiving night. Kickoff temperatures are expected to be in the 20s.
It’s hard to root against him, given his precarious medical status, where one more concussion could be career-ending. His return a month or so ago has recharged the Dolphins, who’ve won three straight and find themselves inching their way back into playoff contention in the AFC after a 2-6 start.
The uber-accurate Tua is eschewing throws downfield and getting rid of the ball quickly to lessen the chances of getting pummeled by pass rushers and to get the ball in the hands of the league’s fastest and most explosive group of skill players. That will be the supreme test for Green Bay’s defense: tackling those pass catchers in the open field and not letting them get loose for big plays.
They’ll have to accomplish that with a linebacker group that is down to three healthy players. Edgerrin Cooper and Isaiah McDuffie will likely miss the game with injuries, and Jaire Alexander will most likely join them in street clothes. This would be a great time for Quay Walker to show that last week’s strong performance was not an aberration but a sign that maybe he has finally turned a corner.
Miami’s offense doesn’t around Tyreek Hill, as it has in recent years. He missed Tuesday’s walkthrough practice for personal reasons. He’s still a dangerous weapon, but the Fins are leaning on speedy De’Von Achane as a runner and receiver out of the backfield, as well as tight end Jonnu Smith, who has emerged as a big-play threat lately. WR Jaylen Waddle had his breakout game this season against the New England Patriots last week.
Meanwhile, the Pack’s offense should have no problem moving the ball. The Dolphins don’t have a great pass rush, though rookie Chop Robinson has come on lately. Their defense has looked great, but they beat up on the woeful Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots the past two weeks.
We’re all wondering how much Josh Jacobs has left in the tank, playing on three days’ rest after a masterful 26-carry performance against the San Francisco 49ers. This will be Jacobs weather, but you have to believe the team will use all three backs, with Chris Brooks getting a chance at some revenge against his former team. Miami is allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, and you know the Pack would love to dominate on the ground, with former DC Joe Barry currently in charge of their run defense.
The passing game will be without Romeo Doubs, who’s still in concussion protocol, taking away Jordan Love’s favorite third-down target. You would assume that opens the door for Dontayvion Wicks, but he’s had a very disappointing sophomore season. Malik Heath’s strong TD catch should give him a chance at additional snaps, and I’m still waiting for a signature Jayden Reed game – I feel like I expect one every week.
With two consecutive games with a 100-plus passer rating, Love is finally fully healthy and starting to get his groove back. This is the first of four-straight prime-time games on the schedule and a chance to show a national audience that his maverick turnover-prone ways are behind him and that he is leading this high-powered offense toward peak efficiency.
With two games looming against NFC playoff contenders in the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks, this game isn’t the most important one left on the schedule. Still, it’s an opportunity to keep the momentum going for a team that’s won six of its last seven.
It’s an opportunity for fans to watch this team put a perfect bow on a festive Thanksgiving Day. And for Tua, it’s a chance to put his cold-weather critics on ice. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Dolphins spring the upset. I was at Lambeau the last time the Pack hosted a game on Thanksgiving night. Brett Favre was back to see his name on the ring of honor. The late, great Bart Starr was there too. And the Chicago Bears spoiled the party.
I’m calling it a back-and-forth affair all night, with the Packers pulling it out in the closing seconds. Maybe another Brandon McManus walk-off.
Packers 23
Dolphins 22
