Sam Darnold’s most infamous mic’d-up moment came in 2019. Down 24-0 at halftime against the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football, Darnold was caught saying, “I’m seeing ghosts.” The New York Jets lost 33-0, with Darnold completing just 34% of his passes for 86 yards and tossing four interceptions.
The Patriots threw all kinds of defensive looks at Darnold, pressuring him and forcing him to make plays against his body movement. That night, he set career lows in passing yards and a career-high in interceptions for a single game.
Five years later, Darnold is off to the best start of a season in his career, this time with the Minnesota Vikings. He’s working with Kevin O’Connell, a brilliant offensive mind, and has top targets like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. According to Pro Football Focus, the Vikings have a top-10 rushing offense with Aaron Jones in the backfield.
Darnold leads the NFL in touchdown passes and is coming off a four-touchdown performance against the Houston Texans. He’s been elite in play-action passes, with a 90.6 passing grade. Although his grade drops nearly 20 points without play action, he remains efficient.
He has excelled on throws of 0-10 yards between the numbers, completing 90.9% of his passes with two touchdowns and a 131.3 passer rating. Defending short throws between the numbers has been Green Bay’s defensive Achilles’ heel for years, so they’ll need to be sharp in this area on Sunday.
Darnold has been exceptional against the blitz, completing 80% of his passes for an average of 13.4 yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a 79.7 passing grade when not blitzed and an 86 grade when kept clean. However, his performance declines under pressure, with a 67.4 passing grade, a 68.2 offensive grade, and only a 48% completion rate. Green Bay will likely need to generate pressure without sending extra rushers.
The Packers are coming off a game where they generated 20 pressures against the Titans. Meanwhile, according to PFF, the Vikings have the fourth-worst* offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency, with Ed Ingram and Garrett Bradbury allowing 20 pressures combined. Devonte Wyatt has three sacks in three games and presents a matchup Jeff Hafley can exploit.
When Darnold holds the football for less than 2.5 seconds, he completes 82.4% of his passes, with three touchdowns and one interception, including one big-time throw and one turnover-worthy play. However, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% when he holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or more.
Green Bay must excel in disguising coverages and making him second-guess what he sees. The Packers lead the league in forced turnovers and interceptions. Xavier McKinney has recorded three picks in as many games, and Jaire Alexander added a pick-six last Sunday. If Green Bay’s linebackers can avoid previous coverage mistakes, Darnold could have a tough day ahead of him.
Darnold has the ninth-lowest pressure allowed among quarterbacks, with at least 15 dropbacks under pressure. Therefore, Green Bay must create situations where he runs into trouble, an area where Jeff Hafley excels in disguising defensive tendencies pre-snap.
The Packers have the personnel to match Minnesota’s offensive firepower. An MRI on Monday revealed that Darnold has a bone bruise but no ligament damage, which could limit his mobility on Sunday. If the Packers play disciplined and fast football, the Vikings will face their toughest test of the year at Lambeau Field.
*An earlier version of this post said the Vikings had the fifth-worst offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency. We regret the error.
