On December 15, all free agents signed in the 2024-25 offseason become available for trade. It’s something of an early Christmas present for NBA fans as the trade season officially starts. Like many fans, I fire up the NBA trade machine and start to move players to and from every team imaginable like some maniacal GM on NBA 2K.
After everyone tries the initial unrealistic, How do I trade Nikola Jokic to the Minnesota Timberwolves? trades, it’s time for business.
However, with the new CBA rules this year, it’s almost impossible to trade players. When ESPN’s trade machine finally allows a trade, Twitter users point out that the machine can’t even account for every rule, and the trade is invalid. I tried out four different trades, each of which could not account for all the obscure rules that each team in the different aprons must follow in a trade.
I started to feel like Carla Espinosa, played by Judy Reyes, in a 2001 episode of Scrubs. She’s standing at the nurse’s desk as Dr. Cox (John C. McGinley) sings, “wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong, you’re wrong, you’re wrong,” to the tune of the Westminster clock chiming.
Through all the failures of trade speculation, the rules finally became somewhat less ambiguous. More importantly, the failures led to a better understanding of where the Wolves will sit this trade season.
First, the Wolves are in the second apron of the NBA’s luxury tax, which governs how they can trade players. They can’t use trade exceptions or cash considerations and cannot sign and trade any players. The Timberwolves also cannot aggregate players in a trade. Most importantly, they can not take a single dollar more back in the trade than they are sending out.
The NBA’s new luxury tax rules make it close to impossible for the Wolves to make a trade this season. They can not combine contracts to make a trade. If the Timberwolves are targeting a player who makes $40 million, they can not combine the trade with another player who makes $30 million and another player who makes $10 million.
Furthermore, they can not combine salaries, even if the outgoing amount is more than the incoming. Meaning that even if they wanted a $40 million player and combined salaries equal to $50 million, $10 million more than the incoming salary, the trade is still invalid – even if the Wolves trade partnering team has the cap space.
To make things more complicated, let’s say the Wolves want a $40 million player, so they ask the team to include another player at $10 million, making the total incoming money $50 million. The Wolves attempt to pair another player, who makes $30 million, with one who makes $20 million, for $50 million outgoing.
On its surface, the trade would be $50 million and two players in and $50 million and two players out. However, the trade would still fail because the Wolves would still be aggregating two players for a $40 million player.
For a four-player trade to work, the salaries would have to match for each set of two players. The Wolves must not take back more money than they are trading out. That means if Player A makes $30 million and Player B makes $20 million from the first team, Player C makes $30 million, and Player D makes $20 million from the Wolves. Ultimately, each component of the trade has to clear independently.
The one bright side is that the Wolves could trade one player for two coming back, much like the Karl Anthony-Towns trade, where Minnesota initially got three players in return for Towns and James Nnaji. Therefore, if the Timberwolves offered Player A at $30 million, they could receive two or more players if they have the roster spot and the salaries do not exceed the outgoing salary.
Clear as mud?
Unfortunately, it gets more complicated. If the Wolves trade with another team in the second apron, the dollars on contracts would have to match, and it would have to be a one-player for one-player deal. That essentially eliminates all second-apron teams from consideration because the money isn’t feasible to match. That eliminates the Phoenix Suns, Boston Celtics, and Milwaukee Bucks. Sadly, the Wolves can’t pair Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant.
Teams in the first apron are also not realistic trade partners for the Wolves. The first apron doesn’t penalize teams nearly as much as the second. Still, it includes the rule that these teams cannot take any more money than they send out.
So, while a first-apron team could pair two players for one player on a second-apron team, the money would have to be an exact match. That’s nearly impossible when dealing with the size of contracts and the second-apron team not being able to send out cash or use exceptions. For all extensive purposes, that eliminates the Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, and Los Angeles Lakers, meaning likely no Jimmy Butler return or LeBron James mega deal.
The last piece of the complex trade puzzle is trading with all teams. The Timberwolves are limited to depositing 125% more money in a trade. That isn’t a deal-breaker, but it adds some complication. The Wolves cannot trade a $30 million player for a $6 million player. At most, the incoming salaried player would have to make $25 million.
Realistically, that leaves the Wolves with few trade options. However, it doesn’t mean a trade is fully impossible. It will just be incredibly difficult to pull off.
Suppose Mike Conley, Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Rob Dillingham are untradable based on no-trade clauses, future contract extensions, or potential. Then, players like Alexander-Walker ($4.3 million) and Dillingham ($6.3 million) aren’t likely trade candidates because they make so little in the NBA world that the returning player would likely not be an upgrade.
That leaves Julius Randle ($33.07 million) as Minnesota’s major trade chip.
So, looking around the NBA landscape, if the Wolves needed to make a trade, a one-for-one trade is incredibly unlikely. They would have to trade Randle for a player making at most his own salary and at least $26.46 million. Factoring out first and second apron teams, these players include Andrew Wiggins, Immanuel Quickly, Jerami Grant, Jordan Poole, and John Collins.
The key correlation with these players is that they are similar to Randle in most cases; they are talented but have holes in their game. The one-for-one trades likely would not be a major upgrade. With intriguing players like Grant or Collins, the question must be asked why the Portland Trail Blazers or Utah Jazz would be interested in Randle, especially given the draft class this year.
That leads to the most likely scenario for the trade being a one-for-two trade, which is complicated. There are factors that derail this idea, and the Wolves would likely not want to take back long-term salaries in return for Randle. Given that the Timberwolves likely made the Towns trade to get off his long-term contract, especially with Alexander-Walker and Reid becoming free agents as soon as this offseason.
That considerably limits the trade possibilities. Going back to my struggle with the trade machine, every time I would find a player who seemed to fit with the Wolves, the rules would get in the way. Either the salaries wouldn’t match, the players wouldn’t make sense, or the question of why the other team would want Randle would implode the trade.
For example, Dorian Finney-Smith makes $14.92 million annually on a two-year deal. Theoretically, he’s a great wing defender and a proven shooter who has thrived off-ball since playing with Luka Donic in Dallas. To trade Randle for Finney-Smith, the Brooklyn Nets must cobble between $11.52 and $18.15 million more in salaries. The only other player on the team in that salary range is Dennis Schroeder ($13.03 million).
Eureka! A pure backup point guard. That’s $33.07 million going out for the Wolves and $27.95 incoming from the Nets. However, the trade fails because they would put the Nets into the first apron and take in more money than giving out.
“Wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong, you’re wrong, you’re wrong.”
So, where does this leave the Wolves?
What about the Indiana Pacers? They may work as trade partners and could be interested in Randle. Indiana has realistic trade pieces in Myles Turner ($19 million), Aaron Nesmith ($11 million), and T.J. McConnell ($9.3 million).
Turner must be in the trade with one of the other two players, which could appeal to the Wolves because all three Pacers players are expiring. Turner could slide in as the backup big, assuming Reid would be elevated. In Nesmith, there is another valuable backup wing, or in McConnell, the coveted backup point guard.
The Wolves could also trade Randle to the Memphis Grizzlies for Marcus Smart’s $20.21 million expiring contract and Brandon Clarke‘s $12.5 million. Again, the Wolves could acquire a capable wing and backup guard. The Grizzlies could be interested in packaging Smart and Clarke, who are returning from injury, for Randle’s scoring threat.
After hours of trade machine roulette, there is not much out there for the Wolves. The Pacers idea is just that, assuming they would be interested in breaking up their chemistry to take on Randles’s salary and talents.
The Wolves need chemistry, and the best way to build chemistry is to keep players together. They are riding a three-game winning streak. Due to the complications of the trade landscape, thanks to the new CBA, Minnesota’s best bet might be to hope they weren’t wrong with the Towns trade and ride out the season while keeping the roster together.
