The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us. We have made it through the off-season doldrums; teams will report to training camp in early October, and media day will take place for most teams on Sept. 30.
Hope, curiosity, and anxiety run wild in the summer among NBA fans. Those emotions intensify as the regular season approaches.
Minnesota Timberwolves fans are chomping at the bit to see their team back on the hardwood. Fresh off the most successful season in 20 years — in which they won 56 regular-season games and made the Western Conference Finals – fans are hoping the Wolves will get over the hump and make the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history.
However, there are also concerns and burning questions.
So, I took to Instagram, asking fans what they were curious about heading into training camp. I received a healthy diet of questions. Hopefully, after reading this, you will better understand what to expect once Game 1 rolls around and what needs to happen for the Timberwolves to compete for their first championship.
Is Rob Dillingham Ready For His NBA Role?
How does Dillingham make a smooth transition into the regular season? (@jazzfor3)
What should we expect to see from Dillingham’s rookie season? (@nate_swanson03)
What happens if Dillingham struggles and loses confidence? (@aduko52)
The point guard position has been the primary concern on Minnesota’s roster since early last season. Tim Connelly signed Shake Milton to a two-year, $10 million contract last summer. Milton was known for his spark-plug isolation scoring during his five-year career with the Philidelphia 76ers. The Wolves were banking on the 6’5” guard to carry that play over. However, Milton severely struggled on offense after a promising preseason stint.
Milton played 38 games for the Wolves – being DNP’d 32 times – before they traded him to the Detroit Pistons at the mid-season deadline. The Wolves received point guard Monte Morris in return for Milton, Troy Brown Jr., and a second-round pick.
Still searching for a reliable backup point guard capable of taking the pressure off Mike Conley, Morris appeared to be just what the team needed – a level-headed, pass-first guard capable of scoring efficiently when needed. However, Morris was still working back from a lower-back injury he suffered in training camp and a thigh injury. He showed flashes with the Wolves, but Morris didn’t play meaningful minutes in the postseason and ultimately walked in free agency this summer.
The Wolves were in a salary crunch this summer and lost most of their pending free agents, including Morris (Phoenix Suns), Jordan McLaughlin (Sacramento Kings), and Kyle Anderson (Golden State Warriors). That wasn’t surprising, but I hoped the Wolves would re-sign Morris or McLaughlin to keep the point guard room as deep as possible.
However, bigger opportunities with slightly larger paychecks drove both of them West.
19-year-old Rob Dillingham is the only true backup point guard on Finch’s roster, who the team traded up to No. 8 in the draft to select. Scouts regarded Dillingham as one of the best guard prospects in the draft. He’s undersized, standing 6’1” without shoes and weighing 164.2 pounds. But Dillingham is a crafty scorer, and the upside is oozing from his pores.
Dillingham will be in the rotation immediately. The Wolves hope he will be able to contribute quickly, but they know it won’t be a seamless transition.
The coaches aren’t going to freely hand minutes to Dillingham. He must earn his right to stay in the rotation. If a rebuilding team drafted Dillingham, he would have a long leash to work through mistakes. However, the Wolves know how valuable regular season games are, and they aren’t going to keep him on the floor if he is costing them games and making stupid mistakes.
“If [Rob] misses a defensive assignment, it’s going to hurt, and it’s going to matter,” Connelly told Dan Barreiro on KFAN in August. “ — learn on the bench.”
The Wolves aren’t expecting Dillingham to be perfect. He only started one game for Kentucky. They know there will be a learning curve, but Dillingham needs to try his best to be an average defender. Offensive woes from a rookie are expected, but being on the backup guard on a contending team means you have to play at a higher level, especially on defense.
“Dillingham is going to get tested defensively every night, ” Connelly explained to Barreiro. “He is a young point guard, maybe the most talent-rich position in the league. There is nowhere to hide, and we are a defensive team.”
Patience will be key as the Wolves begin their 36th NBA season. Dillingham is probably in the best situation for a young point guard. He didn’t get drafted to a team like the Detroit Pistons, who are many years out from title contention. Instead, he landed with a team that will be a contender for as long as Anthony Edwards is on the roster. Additionally, Dillingham will learn under Conley’s wing and hopefully replace the veteran guard when he retires.
But what if Dillingham struggles to the point where the Wolves need to bench him this year? They don’t have another true point guard on the roster to fill in, so Finch will most likely spread Rob’s minutes out.
Thankfully, the Wolves signed Joe Ingles to a one-year deal to replace Anderson. Ingles excels with the ball in his hands, so he will help run the offense off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker also started at point guard multiple times last season when Conley was out. He didn’t have the level of ball security you would like in a backup point guard, but Alexander-Walker’s threat to attack the rim and willingness to have a pass-first mindset make him a capable ball handler.
A backup plan is in place in case Dillingham falls short of expectations. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about the backup point guard situation and how Dillingham handles his large role. However, I expect him to develop nicely in his rookie year. It won’t be pretty, but the rookie has veteran leadership in his corner and an offensive guru as a head coach. As long as the Wolves remain patient, Dillingham will be in a good position to succeed.
Anthony Edwards Improving His Efficiency
Will Ant ever reach that top-tier efficiency with his questionable shot selection? (@azaspades)
At 23 years old, Edwards is already at the fine-tuning portion of his NBA career. He has done enough to establish himself as one of the NBA’s most exciting players. For the last few years, he has been regarded as the next-up in stardom. But he’s a box-office star now, someone fans of any team pay to see in person.
Typically, defense is one of the final steps in a player’s game. However, when he puts his mind to it, Edwards is already an elite defender. He had the second-best defensive rating (108.3) of all starting guards who played 60 or more games in 2023-24. Conley was the only one ahead of him with a 108.0 defensive rating. Additionally, when the Wolves play in clutch situations and desperately need a stop, Ant usually comes up with a huge steal or block.
He has a knack for clutch moments, an intangible trait necessary for a star player but not teachable.
The next step in Edwards’ fine-tuning process is efficiency, and I think the question above poses an interesting inquiry.
Last season, Edwards shot 46.1% from the floor and 35.7% from three, which ranks him 20th and 31st among starting guards who played more than 60 games, respectively. Those aren’t impressive splits or rankings, but it’s worth noting that most of the players at the top of those rankings are role players who don’t take the bulk of their team’s shots.
Additionally, Edwards ranks in the bottom percentile in every shooting metric featured on CleaningtheGlass:
- Effective field goal percentage: 52.6% (51st percentile)
- Three-point percentage: 37% (40th percentile)
- Corner three-point percentage: 35% (21st percentile)
- Non-corner three-point percentage: 37% (53rd percentile)
- Mid-range percentage: 39% (38th percentile)
- Long mid-range percentage: 39% (40th percentile)
- Short mind-range percentage: 40% (44th percentile)
For context, the higher the percentile, the better.
The modern NBA era revolves around analytics. The mid-range shot is often referred to as obsolete. Why take a long two when you could take a few steps back and shoot a three? Ryan Saunders adopted that thought process when he coached the Wolves from 2019 to 2021. Finch also likes his team to be near the top of the leaderboard in three-point attempts. Living and dying with the three-point shot is a system that can work for some, but Edwards is a system by himself, and the shots he takes within the three-point line will decipher how efficient he can be.
38% of Ant’s attempts came from the mid-range last season, while 30% came from three. That’s the inverse of what other star players’ splits look like. Despite what analytics would say, Edwards taking more intelligent mid-range shots is the key to unlocking his next efficiency level.
Excluding the corners, where Ant shoots 35%, non-corner threes are his least effective shots. He shoots 37% from the wings and top of the key, ranking in the 53rd percentile. Teams want to keep Edwards away from the rim, where he shot 69% last season, so Ant bails the defense out when he settles by pulling up from the top of the key early in the shot clock.
I would like Ant to continue being aggressive, attacking inside off screens and in isolation. When inside the arc, he is a five-alarm fire. He threatens to pull up, attack the rim, or dump the ball off to a cutter like Rudy Gobert. The defense has to collapse or send two players to the ball to keep Edwards away from the rim. Reacting to that and knowing when and where to shoot or pass will ascend Ant to the next realm of superstardom.
What Will the Rotation Look Like?
Will the Wolves run a 10-man rotation or split between Ingles and Shannon? (@twolves_district)
What are your predictions for Game 1 minutes? (@Denlan.harmoning)
Finch will have the top seven players in his rotation back this year. It’s a luxury not many high-paying teams have. The Wolves got younger, and there will be a feeling-out process. But the rotation is primarily in place already. The only questions revolve around the final few rotational spots – do they want to get older or younger?
Finch has run a nine-man rotation almost exclusively since he became Minnesota’s head coach in 2021. He likes the cohesion and chemistry that come with a tight-knit rotation. Last year, I thought he should expand to a 10-man rotation, with Milton and Brown Jr. seeming to be players worthy of being in the rotation. However, he kept it at nine again.
I foresee the same thing happening this year, but things could change as the year progresses.
Here is my projection for Minnesota’s nine-man rotation for the season opener in Los Angeles:
- Starters: Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, Gobert
- Bench: Dillingham, Alexander-Walker, Ingles, Reid
Alexander-Walker and Reid will take up most of the minutes off the bench, with Dillingham and Ingles closely behind. I expect Conley’s minutes to be reduced from last year, but the rest of the starters should be on the court for a similar amount of time. Don’t forget that Finch likes to stagger Edwards and Towns’ minutes, so one of them is always on the court in a perfect world.
If Terrence Shannon Jr. gets an opportunity to prove himself during the regular season, he could steal Ingles’ spot in the rotation. But Slow-Mo Joe’s ball handling and floor spacing will make it hard for Finch to take him out of the lineup unless he regresses this year.
A few weeks ago, I went more in-depth on three potential rotations we could see this year.
You can check it out here.
Jaden McDaniels Taking An Offensive Leap?
What type of offensive role will Jaden McDaniels [play] this season? (@spencer_deveau)
Will Jaden McDaniels be able to provide a more consistent scoring option this season? (@rainbowspiraldyes)
The Wolves proved to themselves in the Western Conference Finals that defense alone can’t win championships. That’s part of the reason why they drafted Dillingham and signed Ingles – to bolster their on-ball shot-making, particularly off the bench.
There have been different opinions on McDaniels’ offensive capabilities. The potential is there, but he hasn’t had the breakout scoring season many were hoping to see from him at this point in his career. Therefore, some think he will never become the No. 2 scoring option behind Edwards. However, the Wolves need all the scoring they can get this season. Minnesota’s coaching staff said they will focus on offense in training camp. One of the top to-dos on their list should be increasing McDaniels’ time spent with the ball in his hands.
McDaniels has primarily been a spot-up threat under Finch. 37.3% of his attempts last season were catch-and-shoot, most of which came from three-point range. The Wolves have a lot of mouths to feed on offense this year, so it can be easy to forget about McDaniels. But his usage rate was 14.6%, 5.3% below the league average, ranking in the 38th percentile.
The best way to get Jaden closer to the league average may be a cut-and-dry answer – have him be a pick-and-roll ball handler more frequently. “What I like about doing it is that I think Jaden is an underrated playmaker,” Finch told Britt Robson in a MinnPost interview last week when discussing McDaniels being a PnR ball handler with Gobert.
“It is another way to continue to maximize Rudy,” Finch explained. “It gives another look to the [opposing] defense. I think if you run [Jaden] in some action with Rudy and have the other three spotted up next to them, I am intrigued to see what the spacing on the floor looks like then.”
Finch likes to lean on Minnesota’s overwhelming size when competing against smaller teams instead of running smaller lineups. Overall, the results have been good. But variety in play-calling will help the Wolves continue to play the game their way.
A McDaniels-Gobert PnR could be a lethal play for Finch to keep in his pocket. With the attention Edwards and Towns receive on offense, McDaniels typically has the opposing team’s worst defender guarding him. The Wolves can exploit that poor matchup if they put the ball in Jaden’s hands at a higher clip, either in PnRs or isolation out of the corners.
Will the Wolves Make Another Deep Postseason Run?
How far do you see the Wolves going [this] year? (@colbybrueggemeier)
I expect the Wolves to regress from the team we saw last year. The teams around them in the Western Conference improved their roster. Meanwhile, the Wolves could be giving minutes to two rookies while still having their sights set on hoisting a championship trophy in June.
Regressing doesn’t mean the Wolves won’t make the playoffs or even have home-court advantage in the first round. However, they held the No. 1 seed longer than any other team in the West last season and had the NBA’s best defense by a wide margin. Minnesota was an unmoveable regular season team that put together a historic postseason run, opening the playoffs 6-0 and sweeping the Phoenix Suns in the first round.
As any team does to begin the season, the Wolves will iron out lineups, rotations, and schemes. While I have a hard time believing the Wolves will be the same juggernaut they were in 2023-24, I predict they will be a top-five seed in April.
It is way too early to talk playoffs, but you can’t count an Edwards-lead team out. The Wolves have the makeup of a championship-contending team. They have experienced postseason heartbreak and seem committed to not skipping any steps on their path to being a top-four team at the end of the year. If Dillingham pans out quickly, and the offense is more fluid than last year with the defense staying elite, the Wolves will again be feared by their opponents in the postseason.
But it will take patience from the fans, organization, and players.
Who Should the Wolves Keep In Expansion Draft Situation?
With an expansion looming, [which] Wolves players [would] you protect? (@jake_glantz)
The NBA is beginning to explore adding a team to the NBA for the first since 2002.
An expansion team breaking ground in a new city isn’t on the immediate horizon, but Adam Silver seems determined to expand at some point. With a new team comes an expansion draft, which gives the team a chance to pick players from existing teams around the league. The existing teams were previously allowed to protect eight players under contract for the next season from being selected in the expansion draft.
If the expansion draft took place this summer, here is who I would protect:
- Anthony Edwards
- Jaden McDaniels
- Karl-Anthony Towns*
- Naz Reid
- Rob Dillingham
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker
- Terrence Shannon Jr.
- Leonard Miller
The theme of this group is youth, keeping the players around who could help the Wolves win for a long time. Notable names that are left off include Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, and Josh Minott.
I have an asterisk by Towns’ name because I am torn. If the expansion happened now, the Wolves would severely regress next season if they decided to protect, let’s say, Minott over Towns, depending on who the teams around them in the West decided to protect. However, because the Wolves are trying to win now, protecting Towns would increase their odds of staying in the mix. If they aren’t contending when the expansion rolls around, I could see the Wolves committing fully to protecting the younger players on their roster.
Remember that just because you don’t protect a player doesn’t mean they will necessarily be drafted. The expansion team may not pick Gobert or Conley because of their age. In that case, they would still be on Minnesota’s roster for the rest of their contracts.
