The Minnesota Timberwolves defense limits opponents’ shots at the rim with aplomb. It’s well-versed at switching on screens and being flexible with matchups. It can also beat opponents down the floor to prevent easy buckets in transition.
Just not all at once.
The Wolves had the best defense in the NBA last year by a large margin. Rudy Gobert and Co. stymied driving guards from reaching high-percentage looks at the rim. In response to this effective rim defense, they also limited the efficiency of opponents’ midrange shots.
Minnesota’s defensive foundation remains strong a month into the season. According to Cleaningtheglass, opposing teams attempt 7.5% fewer shots within four feet of the basket when Gobert is on the floor than when he’s off the floor.
While not the top-of-the-league numbers from earlier in his career, Gobert’s 2.3% block percentage – meaning he blocks 2.3% of the shots players take against him – is 67th percentile among “Bigs.” Gobert is still a capable shot-blocker even as he’s almost always assigned to opposing centers with Karl-Anthony Towns gone, leaving less opportunity to get cheap blocks via help defense.
The Wolves are still a top-10 defense by points per possession. They’re struggling to force turnovers but have limited offensive rebounds fairly well. Their most exploitable weakness is only that teams fear their defense… The starting lineup has greatly struggled to prevent transition buckets.
Every member of the starting lineup is in the 40th percentile or worse in the percentage of plays they play defense in the halfcourt. It’s difficult to be a good defense when you’re not set, and opponents have exploited the Wolves by beating them down the floor.
The opposite is true for the second group.
Minnesota’s three primary bench players – Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Donte DiVincenzo, and Naz Reid – are no lower than 87th percentile in the percentage of plays they play defense in the halfcourt. The trio has fared far better in transition defense. They’re quick and attentive, and only Reid is below average in grabbing offensive rebounds relative to his position.
Often playing without Gobert, the same trio struggles to limit shots and efficiency at the rim when they’re on the floor versus off of it. They’re small ball encapsulated in a mini three-man lineup. Reid can defend opposing bigs, but he’s better against opposing wings. All three can drive, shoot, and move their feet.
Overall, they’ve helped the team’s defense more than they’ve hurt it. Despite their shortcomings at the rim, opponents shoot between 1.0 and 4.3 percentage points worse by effective field goal percentage with one of them on the floor versus when they’re off the floor.
Their size hasn’t mattered much. Between limiting the amount of easy buckets they give up in transition to switching and/or helping on drives, they’ve proven capable on that end of the court.
The team is growing and learning. Julius Randle is still finding his footing with a new team. Randle and Anthony Edwards could make up a strong 1-2 punch, and few teams have answers for both players. Mike Conley’s shot will eventually fall. The team’s final product may look different from what it is now – with or without a lineup change.
It may be best to keep rotations the same and hope for better cohesion, but the Wolves have all the puzzle pieces. Two-man lineups may lose situational context, but they may offer insight into how Minnesota can optimize production.
Like last season, Gobert and Reid excel together. Of the 23 two-man lineups with at least 100 minutes played together, the Gobert-Reid tandem is fourth in net rating with a whopping 20.7 point differential. They beat opponents by 20.7 points per 100 possessions.
- Alexander-Walker and Edwards have produced the team’s third-best net rating at 20.8.
- Randle and DiVincenzo are 11th at a highly respectable 10.2 net rating.
- Despite Conley’s early season struggles, he and Gobert still have a positive 0.4 net rating.
The Wolves have a small injection of new players but can still find the best pairings to maximize overall output. Or Minnesota could continue to dish out minutes as it has thus far. The starting lineup will rely on a stout Gobert while they struggle in transition. Meanwhile, the bench limits transition and struggles at the rim.
Minnesota has a talented roster, but it’s disjointed. One group’s flaw is another group’s strength.
