Took a step back last week, losing both NFC West games, so clearly I don’t have my finger on the pulse of that tough division. I’ll avoid it this week and land on three puppies that seem particularly frisky this week.
Browns +7 ½ vs. Baltimore
You can say one thing about the Browns: They are very fond of home cooking. They’ve been a much tougher team at the Dawg Pound and will play there for just the second time since late September. In their three games there, they’ve given up 17 points or less and beaten the Packers and Dolphins, and lost to Joe Burrow and the Bengals by one in Week 2.
The game got away from Cleveland late when they met in Baltimore, but the game was closer than the score indicated. The Ravens are winning, but their offense is not in sync. Lamar Jackson is dealing with a minor knee injury that has impacted his explosiveness as a ball-carrier.
On a chilly day with the winds blowing off Lake Erie, I say Cleveland’s defense keeps this one close.
Panthers +3 ½ at Atlanta
Carolina is another team that’s been much better at home, but their recent shocker at Lambeau has to give them a shot of confidence that they can do it again in a divisional matchup against the up-and-down Falcons. Of course, they followed up that win in Green Bay with a stinker at home against New Orleans, so you never know for sure what you’ll get from them.
I don’t love backing the Panthers in a revenge spot for Atlanta (they stunned the Falcons 30-0 not that long ago), but the Falcons are coming off an overtime game in Europe. This will feel like a very short week for them.
Look for Carolina to have success on the ground with Rico Dowdle and dare Michael Penix to find someone who isn’t named Drake London to beat them. I think this one comes down to a field goal, so I’ll happily take the hook.
Giants +7 vs. Packers
This one hurts a little because I’d like to think my Packers will take out their frustrations on a Giants team that just fired its coach and landed a new QB. What scares me is that the Giants just fired their coach and landed on a new QB.
Teams typically get a bump in their first game after jettisoning their coach, and Jameis Winston is a much more dangerous QB than Russell Wilson at this point, mainly because his teammates love him. At the same time, they roll their eyes at “Mr. Unlimited.”
The truth is, the Pack is becoming a historically bad cover when laying more than a field goal. They are 0-5 ATS this season when favored by four or more. Get this, since ’90, only four teams have had that record of covering futility. Three of them are the Packers, in ’97, ’99, and this year.
Everybody runs on the Giants, but the Packers are struggling in the run game. The defense has been great, but they can’t rely on much film study with the OC-turned-coach and the new QB likely to do some things differently.
The last time Green Bay played the Giants at Met Life two years ago, their backup QB (Tommy DeVito) stunned them. I’m going to believe the Packers figure out a way to end the slide, but it won’t be easy.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 12-18
