The end of the regular season can’t come soon enough for us dog lovers; it’s been a season to remember if you like to bet the favorites. Home dogs have hit at a less than 40% rate, the lowest ever (or since they’ve been paying attention to these things).
I limp off into the 2024 sunset with these three picks, mindful that teams’ motivation is always the biggest priority when betting Week 18.
Cowboys +6 ½ vs. Commanders
I promise you, this is not my heart talking. Sure, I’m hoping Mike McCarthy can do his old team a favor and upset Washington, giving Green Bay a path to the sixth seed if they can beat the Bears for a 12th straight time.
The Cowboys are clearly still playing hard for their old coach, and they dispatched of the Commanders last month in their home stadium. Washington keeps finding ways to win, five times on the last play of the game, and they may squeak away with a win again, but it won’t be easy.
Dallas can run on Washington, and their defense has already seen the Jayden Daniels show. Micah Parsons’ wrist injury is a concern, but he wants to get to double-digit sacks, and I think he’ll be out there. Look for Dallas to show a little pride — I think they win this game outright.
Chiefs +10 ½ at Broncos
Yes, I’m aware that the Chiefs are resting anyone with a pulse and that the Broncos need this win to get into the playoffs. But a double-digit spread? Please.
This is still a proud Chiefs team with a talented roster playing a young divisional opponent playing its first really important game. Carson Wentz will start at QB. As long as the line, comprised mostly of backups, can do a decent job protecting him, he should be able to operate the offense capably. He’ll have Samaje Perine and Carson Steele in the backfield and some veteran receivers to throw to. KC can’t bench everyone.
To me, this line should be six or seven. The fact that it’s crossed over ten seems ridiculous.
Raiders +4 vs. Chargers
Jim Harbaugh has said publicly that his team won’t take its foot off the pedal and will play this game like any other. Let’s ask him again on Saturday night after the Steelers game ends.
They’re the sixth seed, which means a likely trip to Baltimore next weekend. If the Steelers lose, they can jump to fifth with a win, sending them on a much more winnable path through Houston.
I don’t see the Steelers losing, though. Obviously, I wouldn’t make this bet until I was sure the Pittsburgh game was going my way. The Bengals are likely to be without Tee Higgins and Chase Brown, giving the talented Steelers defense a distinct advantage.
Ultimately, I can’t see Harbaugh playing a banged-up Justin Herbert if they’re locked into the sixth seed, and the same holds true for some of his key veteran defenders. If the Steelers win Saturday night, I love the Raiders. Of course, the line will change quickly, so you gotta be paying attention.
Bonus Pick
Now, if I’m wrong and the Bengals knock off the Steelers, roll with the Vikings +3. The Lions’ defense has no chance against red-hot Minnesota. We’re living in a world where Skol Nation is the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 18-33
