It was an ugly week for us dog lovers. Favorites went 11-2 against the spread, and I just wasn’t feeling the Jets in Cincinnati or the Dolphins in Atlanta. No other dog rose up, so it was a lost week, and we’ll look to pick up the pieces with a slate that features a lot of huge spreads, a bunch of close ones, and not much in between.
Steelers +3 ½ vs. Indianapolis
I had the nerve to roll with the Steelers against my Packers last week and watched gleefully as my pick went down in flames. I don’t feel great about riding them again, especially against the 7-1 Colts, but it feels like this is desperation time in Steel City, and I think they rise up and spring the minor upset.
Indy’s explosive offense seems unstoppable — certainly a lot stronger than Pittsburgh’s aging, expensive defense. Some of that firepower figures to be lessened by the lousy field conditions, and I think the Steelers can keep up with them offensively. Desperation time in Pittsburgh, and I think they play their best game of the year.
Falcons +5 ½ at New England
This pick is based on the expectation that Atlanta will get back QB Michael Penix and WR Drake London, both of whom look to be poised to return this week. The Patriots have been a big surprise, led by Drake Maye, but Atlanta’s defense can make him uncomfortable and force him into making mistakes.
Atlanta is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins, and I see a bounce-back led by Bijan Robinson. The Patriots are for real, no doubt about it, but this one will be a lot closer than most people think.
Panthers +12 ½ at Green Bay
Wait, what? You’re picking against the Pack again? You feeling okay? I’m fine, and I’d like nothing more than to see the Pack roll over the Panthers at Lambeau, but this number just feels too big.
First off, there’s the natural letdown potential, coming off the electric second-half performance in Pittsburgh in primetime and with a gigantic Monday night game looming against the Super Bowl champs next week. It’s a trap game spot, and Carolina comes in off a blowout loss to the Bills, so they’ll be focused and fired up.
They’ll also be glad to get QB Bryce Young back, who missed last week with an ankle injury, but had led Carolina to three straight wins before his injury. They will look to shorten the game on the ground with Rico Dowdle, who has injected life into the running game. If the Pack’s run defense (which may be without Quay Walker) isn’t up to the challenge, the Cats might just stick around. Feels like a 24-13 kind of game to me on a windy day at Lambeau.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 8-16
