Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Notre Dame/Penn St First Half Under 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
I really don’t know where the points are coming from tonight, and I especially don’t see much of anything happening early. These are two very conservative teams who want to run the football, up against defenses that are excellent against the run. The Penn State two-headed monster of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton might have run wild against SMU and Boise, but this Notre Dame defense is different. They have the linebackers and safeties to contain both the running backs and Tyler Warren, which I expect Marcus Freeman to have a great early gameplan for.
The Irish offense might be in trouble meanwhile, as they’ve only really thrived against lower level competition this season. Penn State, especially with Abdul Carter back from injury, should easily contain a Notre Dame offense whose only electric player in Jeremiah Love is nowhere near full strength. Given the stakes of a national championship berth here, I think there will be an extended feeling-out process between these teams where they slow things down, try to play a field position battle, and stay under this first half number.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons -2 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA
Why are the Detroit Pistons of all teams laying points to, of all teams, the Golden State Warriors? I feel like it’s 20 years ago or something, but there’s a good reason for this line. I’m not sure what that good reason is, but it’s a situation where I’m picking up what the books are putting down, so I have to lay it with the Pistons here. They’re winners of 5 straight and 8 of their past 9 games, with a 6-3 ATS run, and not flinching after losing Jaden Ivey for the season, so I think they extend their winning ways tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Phoenix Suns Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
The Phoenix offense has been stuck in the mud for the better part of 8 games, averaging just 103.4 PPG in that stretch. Nothing cures bad offense like a date with the Hawks, especially in your own building. Atlanta is having another profitable road overs season at 12-7 so far, and their games on this current road trip that ends tonight have averaged 240.8 points with Atlanta allowing 123.4 of those per game. If the Suns weren’t playing with their shoelaces tied together for the past two weeks, I’d expect that this total would be well north of the 240 mark, so I’m jumping on what I see as an advantageous number.
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Utah Jazz Over 222.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN
I’m still mostly on my Miami overs kick, even though their last outing was a lower-scoring one at Golden State. This game shapes up far differently though, with Utah posting the league’s worst defensive efficiency mark in home games. Miami can and should take advantage of that, especially with this being a revenge game for them after getting run out by 36 on Saturday when the Jazz were in South Beach. Utah might have had a short flirtation with defense down in Florida, but got right back to being themselves on Tuesday, so count on these teams getting over a moderate total tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue -1.5 @ Rutgers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on FS1
There was a time when Purdue would go into Piscataway and lose as favorites of 15 or so points because they couldn’t adjust to the hard-nosed Rutgers defense. That’s far less of a problem now with the Scarlet Knights struggling defensively, which they’ve shown in all of their conference games so far. I actually think the Purdue offense is a little overrated, but this is a matchup where they should be able to thrive.
The defensive issues for Rutgers center around their three-point defense, which ranks 242nd in the country, so it’s a bad time to see the nation’s 10th-best three-point shooting team. The Boilermakers have put together a couple of very impressive Big10 wins in a row, including on the road which was a big concern earlier this season. It’s never easy at the old RAC, but with Dylan Harper still not 100% for Rutgers and a number that’s only asking for a win instead of a 15-point cover, I’ll back the Boilers tonight.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) NDSU/Oral Roberts Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network
The shooting ability of NDSU is something to marvel at, and I think they’ll go off tonight. The Bison are now 6th nationally in effective field goal rate and 4th in three-point percentage, which is especially important since they’re the most three-point reliant team in the country.
Tonight they’ll face an Oral Roberts team that has the 6th-worst effective field goal defense in the nation, and are 302nd in opponent three-point percentage. But while NDSU is getting whatever they want from wherever they choose on the floor, I have major concerns about their own defense. They’ve allowed 89 and 85 points in their two Summit League games, both at home, and defensive problems always get worse on the road in this league.
The ORU offense is not good, but their first conference home game against a struggling defense should give them the opportunity to get on track. This total is not several points higher because of expected tempo, but NDSU has crushed the total in their league games and Oral just went over this number against a glacial-paced and offensively challenged UMKC squad. I’ll be targeting Summit League totals all season, and I think this one is a great bargain.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Dakota/Denver Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Summit League Network
Same conference, same concept, except in this instance it’s more of a question of not knowing where any defense is coming from. North Dakota ranks 355th and Denver 341st in adjusted defensive efficiency, with both squads getting torched already in league play. Denver allowed 91 points in both their games in South Dakota last week, while UND gave up 95 and 88 at home. This game being played at elevation should help tire out those bad defenses, especially with both squads being in the top-12 nationally for shortest possessions allowed on defense. These teams have some issues on offense, but anyone can score on the turnstiles that are these defenses so this should turn into a shootout.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +73.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
