Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/03

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks @ OKC Thunder -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK

With the Bucks having played and lost a tough game to a top Western Conference opponent last night, this situation does not set up well for them. They have to travel to Oklahoma City to meet a rested and prepared Thunder team that will be looking for revenge. The Bucks crushed OKC in mid-December in arguably the Thunder’s worst game of the season, so I expect them to be ready to jump on the tired Bucks right away. The Thunder are always a good team to back early in games, owners of the league’s best first quarter defense and average first quarter margin, so I see them capitalizing on this revenge opportunity.

 

NBA Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Malik Monk Over 7.5 Assists (-110)

0.5 Unit – Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

0.75 Unit – Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 Points (-110)

0.75 Unit – Devin Booker Over 26.5 Points (-110)

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) NC Central @ Norfolk St -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This is an excellent opportunity for Norfolk to showcase themselves in a national TV game, and I think it results in a double-digit win for the Spartans. It’s not often that ESPN gets to Norfolk, but I think we’ll get to see a perfect matchup for the home squad here against a team that simply can’t stop what they do best.

The Spartans live inside the arc and at the free throw line, hardly even trying any shots from long range much less making them, but are lethal when they get to the paint. Norfolk gets the 16th-highest percentage of their points from two’s, and they’ll continue that here against the country’s 354th-ranked two point defense.

NC Central is also very foul prone and will send the Spartans on a parade to the charity stripe. The Eagles can’t shoot from deep either, meaning they’ll have to attack an excellent Norfolk interior defense, so this is a matchup that favors the Spartans in too many ways for them to not run away with it.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Iowa St/Kansas First Half Over 68 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is a bounce back game for both teams after fairly stunning losses on Saturday, and it’s also a revenge game for Kansas after they were whipped up in Ames a couple weeks ago. So there should be no lack of motivation out of both squads, and I think that fire brings us points from two underrated offenses. Kansas especially is a little undervalued on the offensive end right now thanks to their sluggish start to the season. But the Jayhawks have definitely turned it around, getting into uncharacteristically high-scoring games in 4 of their past 5 outings where first halves have averaged 70.0 points.

I think they’ll be able to score on the Iowa State defense as my Clones tend to leave the defense on the bus in the first half of road games. They’re allowing 35.8 first half points on the road this season, so a KU team that scores 40.1 on average at home should capitalize. Let’s also remember that the meeting in Ames saw 70 points at halftime, and that’s with ISU’s home defense, KU’s road woes, plus it came before this turnaround from the Jayhawks. The home game/road game trends for both teams suggests points are coming here, and I think this is a cheap number for the kind of start we should see.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick has gained +70.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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