Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Virginia -3.5 vs Duke (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
Tinfoil hat guy checking in on this one. There is absolutely no way the ACC wants Duke to win this game and most likely leave them high and dry as a conference for the CFP. That’s probably the case if the Blue Devils spring the short upset, so while I’m not saying there will be any shenanigans, it’s something that has appeared to happen with this conference as recently as last season. It’s also just plain hard for me to look at Duke and see anything special with this team.
The Blue Devils been power rated in weird ways all year, seeing short spreads similar to this against quality competition and getting run off the field more often than not. If Darian Mensah isn’t able to go wild against a weak defense, this team sputters out, and Virginia has an above-average pass defense that already held him in check once this season. That 34-17 Cavaliers win just a few weeks ago was not a fluke and the final score was not indicative of how much UVA actually dominated, and I think they can do it again.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers/Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Over 110 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
Something has clicked in the Timberwolves lately, turning their first halves into track meets regardless of who they’re playing. The past 4 games, where not coincidentally Anthony Edwards has been going off, Minnesota first halves are averaging 125.3 points. Suspect offenses and more defensive-oriented teams have been the opposition, so I’m less concerned about them facing the mess that is the Clippers right now. While everything is bad for LA at the moment and it’s tough to ask much out of them, the style of play we’re getting from this Wolves team to open games has to be factored in here, and such a low number is one where I have to look to the over.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 25.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 4:00 PM CT on YES
I’ve gotten a closer look at this Pelicans defense with the Wolves playing them in back-to-back games, and they’re ripe for the picking. The stats are not misrepresenting anything with them, as there is no interior defense whatsoever and the top scorer for every opponent seems to have a massive night against them. That would be MPJ here and MPJ alone, as Cam Thomas remains out for the Nets so it really becomes a one-man show. Porter should be well rested for this one after sitting out the other night, and his torrid run should continue against one of the league’s worst defenses.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Akron Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This Akron offense is a rocket ship, and I don’t think Tulane has any chance of slowing them down. The Green Wave have struggled defensively at times this season, which is concerning when you factor in a weak schedule of offenses. The best unit they’ve faced is Utah State, ranked 56th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they got 96 points dropped on them. Akron checks in at 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Zips will be making it rain from deep in this one.
Not only is Akron 3rd nationally in effective field goal percentage, but they’re 4th in three-point percentage and rely heavily on the long ball. Tulane can’t guard on the perimeter, ranked 351st in three-point percentage defense and allowing the 12th-highest split of points to be gained from beyond the arc. That’s a serious mismatch that tells me Akron will find their way over this number for the 7th time already this season.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-29 (-0.29 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
