Locks
NFL (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
This is not typically a spot where you want to lay a big number. The Saints, despite all their flaws, do tend to cover NFC South games, and have been very good in Tampa with 7 straight ATS wins. They don’t come away with many actual victories against the Bucs though, as Tampa is 6-1 straight up in the past 7 meetings overall.
The Saints are not going to be able to run the ball on this Bucs defense, which exposes Tyler Shough on the road, and he already lost badly to Tampa earlier this season. I think the Bucs are getting healthier at the right time and need this for the division race, so they’ll come away with the cover of this adjusted number.
Denver Broncos (-0.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders: 3:05 PM CT on CBS
Denver simply cannot keep playing with fire, as they’ve trailed in all 12 games this season. But if there’s a team where you can get away with facing while not being sharp, it’s the Raiders. This is a minor league team if I’ve ever seen one, with pitiful coaching and schematics that do no favors for a significant lack of talent. There is a horrific mismatch for Vegas in this one as their terrible offensive line and immobile QB face the fiercest pass rush around, and that should be the biggest key in determining this game.
Denver is sure to somehow infuriate their fans and backers, even if they learned a lesson from last week’s game or the first meeting a few weeks ago. But at the end of the day it doesn’t benefit the Raiders at all to win this game while the Broncos contend for the one seed, so I’ll expect them to come away with the win.
LA Rams (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: 3:25 PM CT on FOX
The futility Arizona has against Sean McVay and the Rams goes back a long ways, and I don’t think anything changes today. The Rams have never lost in Glendale when they’re favored under McVay, and that’s what I want to ask out of them here with this teased number. The Cardinals also just plain struggle against the NFC West, going 4-18 straight up the past 4 seasons which includes 1-7 without Kyler Murray.
I have to imagine the Rams will be on a business trip here after not taking the Panthers seriously enough last week. LA got whatever they wanted in that game offensively, and I think that continues today as the league’s number one offense by success rate faces the 25th-ranked defense. Expect plenty of points here, particularly from the Rams, and an easy cover on the tease.
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
The Colts are in the process of coming back to earth, and this game might give them a crash landing. Jacksonville has been a house of horrors for Indy over the years, as they haven’t come out of there with a win since 2014, which really makes you think given all the terrible Jags teams we’ve seen. In the past decade’s worth of meetings overall, the Colts are just 3-16-1 ATS against Jacksonville including 1-9 on the road, so getting this number bumped up through a touchdown feels like great value.
The Colts will struggle to run the ball in this game against the league’s stingiest rushing yardage defense, which is even more of a problem for them given Daniel Jones’ health. Asking Trevor Lawrence to do much positive is tough, but the Jags should be able to run the ball effectively against the Indy defense, keeping them inside this big cushion of a number.
Cincinnati Bengals (+11) @ Buffalo Bills: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
This is a massive game for both teams, and I think we see a tighter contest because of it. Without a win here, the Bengals can all but kiss their playoff chances goodbye, and that’s why they have Joe Burrow playing in what appeared to be a lost season. But Joe Cool is good to go, as is Tee Higgins, making this offense full strength against a Buffalo team that has had more than its share of defensive lapses this season.
The Bills also need this game like blood to stay competitive not only in the AFC East but the wild card race if the division slips away. But despite that, you just don’t often see Joe Burrow and company lose by margin, as Cincy is 18-3 ATS with a plus-6.5 cover margin when Burrow is a dog of 3 points or more. Additionally, he steps up against quality competition, going 15-6 ATS when listed as an underdog against teams with a winning record. So to move this number into double digits is too good to pass up for what I expect to be a narrow win for somebody here.
NFL (1 Unit) New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Ride this trend until the wheels come off. The Saints are completely inept to start games, going 1-11 ATS in first quarters this season including 0-6 on the road, thanks to scoring the fewest points and allowing the second-most. Getting outscored 92-19 in first quarters is how you end up with the worst first quarter ATS mark this decade, and I expect the Bucs to capitalize. Tampa’s offense with Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back in the fold makes them dangerous, and just one field goal on their first possession should be enough here.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders Team Total Under 15.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on CBS
I said above how it’s likely the Broncos will make this game interesting in some frustrating way, but I doubt it will be the defense’s fault. Denver coming into this game with the 6th-best defense by overall EPA per play, the 2nd-best defensive success rate, plus that pass rush I mentioned, should shut down this Raiders team that is stuck in the mud offensively. The league’s second-lowest scoring team has been held under this total in half their games this season, including all of their AFC West games. Geno Smith is a statue behind a bad line, they can’t run the ball, and I just don’t see much out of them today.
NFL (1 Unit) LA Rams -5.5 First Half @ Arizona Cardinals (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
I was backing the Rams in the first half last week against a bad first half opponent and it bit me, but I don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Not with the Rams being better prepared today than they were last week, as again I expect them to be all business in this bounce back spot. They’ll once again be able to get whatever they want against a porous Arizona defense, and this Cardinals team is on an incredible first half run. Incredibly bad that is, going 1-12 ATS in the first half of their past 13 divisional games, including 9 straight losses. That creates the perfect setup for the Rams to start fast, and I can’t allow myself to be scared away by last week’s surprising result.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Chase Brown Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – James Cook Over 119.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Brenton Strange Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jonathan Taylor Under 92.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Travis Etienne Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Bucky Irving Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Chris Olave Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tyrod Taylor Over 182.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Devon Achane Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Breece Hall Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Keaton Mitchell Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Ashton Jeanty Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Brock Bowers Alt Over 6.5 Receptions (+130)
1 Unit – Matthew Stafford Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+115)
0.75 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
1 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Trey McBride Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Nico Collins Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Charlotte Hornets Over 233.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
This total has come down on the news that we likely won’t see LaMelo Ball for this game, but that makes it time to pounce on the over at a discounted number. You’re just not going to get any real defense out of either of these teams, with Denver too shorthanded overall including key defenders, and Charlotte simply not caring about that end of the floor all season.
Putting their lack of effort up against the league’s best offensive team for scoring, shooting, and efficiency should see the Nuggets put up another big number. But I keep believing that Denver simply doesn’t have the stamina for defense with this very short rotation, which is why their past 12 games are 11-1 over this number while averaging 248.7 points, and this is a matchup built to expand that run of overs.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-31 (+0.71 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
