A common theme this season for the Minnesota Vikings has been rewriting expectations.
I feel like I’ve repeatedly written about how this team has exceeded and reset our expectations time and time again. Going into the Green Bay Packers game, I wrote about how, if they won that game, swept their division rival, and beat them at the height of their powers, I would be confident headed into any playoff game that they had at least a coin flip’s chance of winning.
Perhaps it’s the nature of fandom, but one week and one more loss to the Detroit Lions later, and all that bluster and bravado has quickly evaporated from the fanbase.
That’s especially true of how Vikings fans view Sam Darnold. No player has embodied this journey to shed prior preconceptions more than Darnold. He’s continued to blow away our expectations every step along the way — 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdowns should speak for itself, and it has spoken volumes about how far Darnold has come from his disastrous years in New York and Carolina.
Unfortunately, this past week in Detroit, we saw just how fragile the newfound confidence in Darnold can be.
Darnold had a bad night on the biggest stage the Vikings had been on in a long time. Detroit played like the better team for most of the night, but Darnold’s performance was the tipping point. Who knows if Minnesota could’ve won that game even if Darnold had been sharp? Still, there were five throws in that first half alone that, had they been on target, would have put Minnesota in a very different position.
Darnold made four trips to the red zone against the Lions but came away two of 11 for eight yards. Those numbers will make even the most fervent Darnold supporters get a wandering eye for J.J. McCarthy. Whether the injury on his throwing hand is more serious than we’ve been led to believe or the moment was too big for him, that isn’t what you want to see from a guy you’re mulling over signing to a large extension.
Darnold had finally found a foothold of success for the first time since he was at USC, in a situation and system where he could begin to live up to the billing of the franchise quarterback the New York Jets wanted him to be when they drafted him third overall. But suddenly, after one stinker of a game, it’s like the full weight of his Jets tenure is right back on his shoulders. And if you think that burden is heavy now, just wait and see if he ends up bearing the blame for this 14-win season resulting in a Wild Card exit.
Against the Los Angeles Rams the first time around, Darnold played well enough to put Minnesota in position to win. However, it was one of his more uneven performances. He held on to the ball far too long, paving the way for breakout play from LA’s defensive front, led by rookie Jared Verse. The pressure got to him, leading to sloppy footwork and inaccuracy. It was far from a meltdown, but still not his best effort.
The Vikings will need his best effort on Monday. Darnold has proven the ability to bounce back from a slump, as he did earlier this season. Still, this team will need him to ignite a hot streak again if there’s any hope of a meaningful run this postseason. For Darnold, this may be the difference between a team signing him as a bona fide starter this offseason or being recycled again as another bridge for a team in transition.
Whether in Minnesota or elsewhere, Darnold has a ton on the line if he wants a rich market this offseason.
The man won 14 games. He threw for 4,300 yards and was fifth in the league in touchdowns. His body of work should matter beyond the isolated results in two games, regardless of their magnitude. But with this Lions loss already staining his resumé, it won’t take much for another lackluster performance to undermine the progress Darnold made this season.
Minnesota gave Darnold a golden opportunity to rewrite his story this season. He’s made good on that opportunity, but the most important segment is this home stretch. Darnold must prove that the outlier isn’t the season he just had as a whole but the missteps along the way.
He stands at the crossroads of career outcomes heading into this game. On one side is Geno Smith, a fellow former busted Jets pick who turned himself into a quality starter later in his career. On the other side is Jameis Winston, another draft bust still bouncing around the league but not trusted to be anything other than a spot starter.
It’s the nature of sports. It’s the ruthless combination of What have you done for me lately? and I knew it, this guy sucks. Fans will always have a short-term memory for success and a long-term one for failure, and their stubborn nature will default to their priors in a situation like this. Sam Darnold has both going against him, and it’ll be up to him to shrug off the negativity again on Monday.
