Kwesi Adofo-Mensah doesn’t use Rich Hill’s popular trade chart to assess pick value, and he doesn’t use Jimmy Johnson’s model, either.
“I built the chart myself,” Adofo-Mensah said. “I’ve seen other different charts, and they all take different assumptions.”
Adofo-Mensah won’t divulge the details of his chart. Still, he was a Wall Street trader, and his work with the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns probably influenced it.
“I’ve seen people in San Francisco and Cleveland do it,” he continued. “The best thing you can do is understand why each chart is built the way it is, and maybe for each decision you make, understand how you’re using it for you, and go with that chart value there.”
People still criticize Adofo-Mensah for the 2022 draft, where he traded down multiple times, creating a matrix of transactions that resulted in limited production. It was a negative first impression for a GM who engineered a 13-win season in his first year and 14 wins last season.
Adofo-Mensah traded for T.J. Hockenson and drafted Jordan Addison. He has also had two successful free-agency classes. Unlike in 2022, when Adofo-Mensah inherited Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter, he drafted his future franchise quarterback and added an edge rusher last year.
However, the Vikings traded up to draft J.J. McCarthy and edge rusher Dallas Turner. As a result, they have a league-low four picks this year. Therefore, Adofo-Mensah must tap into his Wall Street savvy to fill out Minnesota’s roster.
Fortunately, he has given himself flexibility.
The Vikings have no pressing needs. They should think ahead at safety after losing Camryn Bynum in free agency because Harrison Smith is 36. Still, they built out an offensive line that can protect McCarthy, and Flores has enough talent that he won’t need to blitz like a maniac.
McCarthy has the infrastructure he needs to succeed. He can throw to Justin Jefferson, Hockenson, and Addison, or hand the ball off to Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. He won’t need to chase the score because the defense can hold opposing offenses in check.
By assembling a competitive roster before the draft, Adofo-Mensah set himself up to take the best player available with every pick.
The Vikings don’t need Jaxson Dart or another quarterback in the late first, so he can flip the 24th pick for value. Adofo-Mensah also worked the NFL’s convoluted compensation draft formula to add a third-rounder he can trade for value. Minnesota also has a fifth- and sixth-round pick from Cleveland and San Francisco, ironically.
The complicating factor is that Minnesota must find a trade partner. The draft is relatively flat, meaning there is good talent across the board but limited high-end prospects. Therefore, teams will want to draft for value in the second or third round rather than trade up.
It feels fitting that the Wolf of Chicago Ave. must evaluate draft-pick value and wheel and deal to get the talent the Vikings need to fill out their roster. Adofo-Mensah’s contract is expiring, and executing a successful draft is the final step in the Wilfs’ evaluation process.
To have a successful draft, Adofo-Mensah must lean on what he’s learned in his past experiences. He must correctly evaluate the pick values, flip one or two for value, and hit on the right players. He must put it all together to fill out the rest of Minnesota’s roster.
This weekend, the league’s Wall Street GM must execute on the trade floor.
