The Minnesota Vikings were getting to battle the Los Angeles Rams on a cool October night. The Vikings had just suffered their first loss of the season the week before, and Kevin O’Connell was ready to battle his mentor Sean McVay in a showdown fit for national television.
Once Al Michaels had a complete change of blood, we were ready to go. That is until the bright light of the tunnel highlighted a silhouette standing in the center. Brian Flores looked wide-eyed. The crowd at SoFi Stadium went bananas.
“Could it be?” Michaels groaned, perhaps fearing that he bet on the wrong team.
It indeed was Puka Nacua. Activated from the injured list just hours before the game, Nacua was a problem for the Vikings all game, catching seven passes for 106 yards and a touchdown in the Rams’ 30-20 Oct. 24 victory.
Flores admitted earlier this week that the Vikings weren’t prepared for that development. The question looms over the playoff rematch between the two teams on Monday night: Will the Vikings be able to stop Nacua this time? And are they better equipped for what McVay could throw at his star pupil?
The past few weeks may have given us an answer.
Nacua’s season has been quite a ride, beginning with him missing over a month of action with a knee injury he sustained in a season-opening loss to the Detroit Lions. Further hindered by Cooper Kupp’s injury the following week, the Rams marched into the Week 8 matchup with a 2-4 record, and Nacua didn’t appear likely to play as the Rams opened his practice window in a short week.
But with the Rams fighting for their playoff lives, they aggressively activated Kupp and Nacua, unloading many problems on Minnesota’s defense.
Minnesota played exclusively in zone during the first matchup. According to Pro Football Focus, Byron Murphy played 74.4% of his snaps in zone coverage, and Stephon Gilmore played 72.2% in zone. Nacua ate it up, averaging 6.13 yards per route run against the zone and leaving Flores dazed and confused throughout the game.
“Quite honestly, we were a little bit surprised that he was out there,” Flores said this week. “There was a little bit of scrambling.”
But the Vikings’ secondary wasn’t the only culprit. Minnesota’s pass rush couldn’t generate pressure on Matthew Stafford, creating a 23.5% pressure rate far from the 31.1% pressure rate they’ve allowed this season. That also came while the Vikings blitzed Stafford on 38.2% of his dropbacks, which is in line with the league-high 38.9% clip they’ve posted this season.
Simply put, the Vikings didn’t get home when needed, allowing Stafford to sit in the pocket and feed the ball to Nacua. But while teams have been able to get home on Stafford more frequently than the Vikings, Minnesota may have had the right idea on how to attack the Rams.
Nacua hasn’t dropped off from the previous meeting, collecting a league-high 40% target share since his return. However, instead of trying to stop Nacua, teams have let him eat while trying to stop the rest of L.A.’s pass-catchers.
That’s been especially evident in the past three weeks. After averaging 26.2 points in the first six games of Nacua’s return, the Rams averaged just 14.6 points per game in their final three meaningful games against the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, and Arizona Cardinals.
Part of the slowdown could be due to the Rams’ playing three solid defenses. Another consideration is that the Rams may have become too reliant on Nacua.
Still, there’s also the way teams are playing them.
The 49ers played a zone-heavy scheme in Week 14, and Nacua could catch seven passes for 97 yards. The next two weeks saw the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals play more man coverage, and Nacua still caught a total of 18 passes for 185 yards.
Those numbers don’t indicate a lockdown effort, but it makes sense when you look at the rest of the Rams’ offense. While Nacua has 29 targets over the last three games, Kupp is the next closest with nine. Nacua also has 3.71 yards per route run during that span, while opponents have limited Kupp to 0.62 yards per route.
Nacua also has the highest percentage of targets in the slot at 26.1%. While he’s lethal wherever he is, it’s similar to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who the Vikings saw in with the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16.
The Vikings used a different game plan in Seattle than they did against the Rams. Shaquill Griffin played 52.2% of his coverage snaps in man, while Stephon Gilmore (26.1%) and Byron Murphy Jr. (25%) also played higher rates in man coverage.
Minnesota’s front seven also did its job pressuring Geno Smith on 47.8% of his dropbacks and forcing him to throw eight checkdowns to Kenneth Walker III for 28 yards.
Smith-Njigba still did damage, catching eight passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. But the Vikings contained D.K. Metcalf (three catches, 57 yards, TD) and Tyler Lockett (two catches, 19 yards) in their 27-24 victory.
Minnesota would be taking a risk by playing man coverage. Murphy and Griffin are the only players on the roster with PFF grades over 60 in man coverage this season. However, the Vikings have more weapons up front than they did in October with Blake Cashman‘s return and Jalen Redmond and Dallas Turner‘s breakouts.
Nacua may still make fans throw things at the TV Monday night, and Minnesota’s offense needs to get over whatever hangover exists from last week’s clunker in Detroit. But it feels like they’re much more prepared for what Nacua could do and how to slow down a Rams offense that caught them off guard back in October.
