Vikings

The Vikings’ Defense Must Switch It Up To Beat L.A.

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

In my lifetime, being a Minnesota Vikings fan is a repetition of a seven- to twelve-year cycle, the apex of which is that one team that’s so captivating you know you’ll never forget it — the team that feels like it might be special enough to finally win it all.

Come on, say them with me: ‘98, ‘09, ‘17.

The 2024 squad feels like it belongs among them. This season even has the requisite cast-off quarterback in his first year with the team (Randall Cunningham only started three games in ‘97, doesn’t count). The question is, will this one end any differently? Are we to be punished again by the gods for our hubris, or will we finally reach the mountaintop?

The first step on that journey is a game in Arizona against the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams come in playing great football. The Vikings and Rams are 9-1 and 7-3, respectively, since their last meeting. L.A.’s defense is a young, upstart group with some nice players but a low ceiling. The real threat to ending Minnesota’s season resides on the other side of the ball with Matthew Stafford, his receivers, and Sean McVay’s machinations.

Can Brian Flores replicate his second game plan against the Green Bay Packers in this rematch? First, let’s look at how Flores played them the first time.

Flores blitzed Stafford heavily in their first meeting in Week 8. The Rams’ offense did a good job on third and fourth downs, going five of 11 with 0.71 EPA/play and a 66.7% rushing success rate on late downs.

Stafford was also 10 for 13 against the blitz for 128 yards and consistently moved the football, scoring a touchdown in every quarter. The Rams converted 26 first downs on nine drives, including five first downs Minnesota’s penalties gifted them.

At the very least, Flores’ group must force a slow start for the Los Angeles offense. The Vikings allowed only 3.3 yards per rush in Week 8 and will need a repeat performance against the run to keep the Rams in precarious down-and-distances.

Despite the blitzes and the injuries to L.A.’s offensive line, the Vikings didn’t sack Stafford in their first meeting, allowing him to sit back and carve up zone defense. That was before Flores’ man-coverage enlightenment period; the Vikings ran nearly 90% zone coverage back then.

On Monday night, Flores and his staff will be fully prepared for Rams star receiver Puka Nacua, who they activated four hours before their first meeting. It will be interesting to see how knowing Nacua will be playing changes Flores’ approach. While Nacua and Cooper Kupp are talented, they aren’t great one-on-one separators. They are savvy, sure-handed route runners with average speed.

Therefore, this may be the perfect matchup for the man coverage curveball. Kupp has only three catches over his last four games, and it’s clear that Nacua has become the No. 1 option. Minnesota’s ancillary pass-catchers are uninspiring, so we could expect some serious bracket coverage on Puka Nacua. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Byron Murphy Jr. shadow him because the Arizona Cardinals asked him to do that with Kupp before he signed with the Vikings in 2023.

L.A.’s offense has been strong against zone coverage in general but particularly against the scheme the Vikings predominantly run. The Vikings are top-four in Cover 2 rate (27.9%) and Quarters rate (21.4%). The Rams offense is ninth in EPA/play against Cover 2 and sixth in EPA/play against Quarters.

 

The Rams spammed “seven” or “corner” routes against these two-high structures in Week 8, and Stafford feathered throws to the sidelines to beat the corners’ leverage. Whether that corner was in Cover 2 and Stafford hit the “hole shot” or anticipated his receivers’ break in front of a back-pedaling Quarters defender, the Rams seemed to have all the answers.

The Rams picked up Minnesota’s blitz as well as any team this season, and that was without starting left guard Steve Avila, who, along with the rest of the starting offensive line, will be healthy on Monday night.

Monday’s game will be a bounce-back game for the entire team, and it won’t get any easier after this one. The winner earns a trip to Lincoln Financial Field to face a scorching-hot Philadelphia Eagles team.

Minnesota’s ability to execute more single-high coverages (Cover 1, Cover 3) against the Rams could give us some optimism for the following matchup. While L.A.’s ground game is solid, it is not Philadelphia’s. If the Vikings advance, they will need to operate with one-high safety more than they are used to, simply to get another body in the run fit. Additionally, Jalen Hurts may not be healthy enough to be at his best and punish single-high with his arm.

But that’s all theoretical as the Vikings prepare for a rematch with one of the only two teams to beat them in the regular season. The scenario is slightly different — now it’s time to find out if the results will also be, or if we’re bound to repeat the cycle.

Vikings
Running It Back With Sam Darnold Was Never Worth It
By Drew Mahowald - Feb 11, 2025
Vikings
Aaron Rodgers Would Burn the Vikings Culture to the Ground
By Chris Schad - Feb 11, 2025
Vikings

Philly’s Super Bowl Win Explains Minnesota’s Donatell Dalliance

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Kirk Cousins was perplexed playing against the Minnesota Vikings’ new-look defense in training camp. It wasn’t the first time he had seen something like it. Still, there […]

Continue Reading