The Minnesota Vikings fell off script on fourth-and-one.
With 9:47 left in a game that the Atlanta Falcons led 15-6, Minnesota punted the ball on fourth-and-one from its 28-yard line. Ryan Wright’s 55-yard punt put the Falcons on their 17-yard line.
However, Atlanta’s 12-play, 83-yard drive took 6:17 off the clock and ended Minnesota’s chances of a comeback. ESPN’s metrics gave the Falcons an 87.5% chance of winning at the beginning of the drive. They gave them a 99.9% chance after the Vikings allowed Atlanta to score a touchdown from five yards out, giving them the ball back down 22-7 with 3:22 left in the game.
“We [had] fumbled a snap early on when I got pretty aggressive there on that fourth down early,” O’Connell said, explaining his decision to punt on fourth-and-one early in the fourth.
“[I was] hoping to get that one more timely stop to try and have anywhere from six, seven minutes to put the ball in the end zone and see what happens.”
You may not buy O’Connell’s logic on the late fourth-and-one, especially when he dialed up a deep pass to Jalen Nailor that J.J. McCarthy sailed over his head the play before. Still, O’Connell’s explanation is the perfect microcosm of Minnesota’s first loss of the season.
McCarthy had bobbled the snap on fourth-and-inches on the Vikings’ first drive, allowing Atlanta to take over on Minnesota’s 36-yard line.
“[I] take that on me,” McCarthy said regarding the exchange with center Ryan Kelly. “I dropped it. We gotta be better at the little things.”
The Vikings held Atlanta to a field goal after they turned it over on downs. Still, Minnesota stressed its defense all night. The Vikings ran 46 offensive plays to Atlanta’s 63, and poor execution on short-yardage plays wasted offensive opportunities and fatigued the defense.
Minnesota had third-and-two on its second drive. However, McCarthy took a nine-yard sack, creating a three-and-out.
In the middle of the second quarter, the Vikings had first-and-goal from the two-yard line after Eric Wilson forced a fumble by punching the ball out of Drake London’s hands in the open field. However, disaster ensued.
- McCarthy fumbled, recovered the ball, and threw an incomplete pass.
- The Vikings took a delay of game penalty on second-and-two.
- McCarthy took a seven-yard sack on second-and-seven.
- On third-and-14, McCarthy took another sack, and the Vikings had to settle for a field goal.
The Vikings got the ball first in the second half, down 9-6. However, McCarthy threw his second pick of the night on a third-and-two pass to T.J. Hockenson. Again, the defense held Atlanta to a field goal.
On the next drive, they faced third-and-four down 12-6 late in the third quarter. However, Brian O’Neill false-started, and McCarthy missed Justin Jefferson on a third-and-nine pass he had to complete.
Minnesota’s defense forced a three-and-out on the next possession, but McCarthy lost a fumble on the first play of the next drive. Again, the Vikings’ defense held Atlanta to a field goal.
Until that point in the game, the Vikings followed a similar script to their Week 1 win in Chicago. McCarthy had largely been ineffective, and Minnesota wasn’t running the ball enough. Still, McCarthy had a 50-yard completion to Jefferson that set up Will Reichard’s field goal to end the half, much like his deep pass to Nailor at Soldier Field. A 15-6 game is still within reach.
However, the Vikings veered down a separate path in the fourth quarter. There was no miracle comeback. Atlanta didn’t melt down like the Chicago Bears. O’Connell dialed up a deep pass to Nailor on third-and-one, and McCarthy missed him. They punted the ball away because they hadn’t had success in short-yardage situations, and the Falcons sealed the game.
“[There are] things throughout negative plays that are stacking up against us, where it seems like we take one step forward and two steps back,” said O’Connell. “That’s across the board on offense.”
McCarthy needs to handle the snap better on fourth-and-inches, and he can’t miss Jefferson on a routine third-down play late in the game. Meanwhile, O’Connell must stop hunting explosives when Jordan Mason is running the ball well.
O’Connell must make the game easy on McCarthy by simplifying things so that he can execute well enough to win the game. That way, he’ll feel confident that he’ll execute on a fourth-and-one they have to convert late in the game.
