If you look at the history of Super Bowl champions, it’s littered with teams who have, in one way or another, found an edge over their competition. Just like in business, exploiting market inefficiencies in football can lead to the ultimate success. The Philadelphia Eagles are an example of this, with consistent trades for veterans and their usage of void years on contracts, maxing out the amount of cash they can spend on players in a given year.
For years, the New England Patriots took defenders who fell through the cracks, like Trey Flowers, Jamie Collins, J.C. Jackson, and Kyle Van Noy. Bill Belichick’s genius allowed him to use these players unconventionally to create elite defenses. The Seattle Seahawks’ Legion of Boom took an underappreciated archetype of long, physical CBs and used them to shut down passing across the league.
And the Kansas City Chiefs, well, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.
That’s now Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s fourth free-agency class, and it’s clear that he thinks he’s found a market inefficiency to exploit — signing injured players.
INJURED ADDITIONS
When the “legal tampering” period began on Monday, the Minnesota Vikings immediately got busy. By Tuesday morning, they announced they had agreed to terms with five outside free agents for big money. At the opening of the 2025 NFL league year, the Vikings officially announced that they’d agreed to terms with the following players (contract values have been collected from various reports):
Will Fries: five years, $88 million
Jonathan Allen: three years, $51 million
Javon Hargrave: two years, $30 million
Ryan Kelly: two years, $18 million
Isaiah Rodgers: two years, $11 million
The total value of those signings adds up to nearly $200 million in commitments, an impressive spending spree for the team. But each signing has a common thread — 2024 injuries. Ryan Kelly‘s 10 starts are the most any of the five players had in 2024. In fact, the players combined to start just 28 of 85 potential regular season games:
Technically, Isaiah Rodgers wasn’t injured; he was just a backup for the Eagles. Still, he started three games as an injury replacement. Still, Rodgers missed all of 2023 with a suspension for gambling, so he fits under the umbrella of a player who has missed significant playing time.
A HISTORY OF SUCCESS
Betting on injured players continues a trend that dates back to Adofo-Mensah’s first season as a general manager when he signed Za’Darius Smith, a player who had functionally missed all of 2021. That bet paid off to the tune of 10 sacks and emboldened the Vikings even further.
In 2023, I wrote about how the Vikings VP of player health and performance, Tyler Williams, allowed them to bet big on Byron Murphy, Marcus Davenport, and Josh Oliver. Murphy had played only nine games in 2022, while Davenport and Oliver each had a history of injuries — Oliver had missed the entire 2020 season with a foot injury. Davenport was a flop, but Murphy and Oliver have more than paid off their contracts, with Murphy also getting a large extension this week.
Turning the page to 2024, we see even more injury bets pay off. Aaron Jones had missed six games with a hamstring injury in 2023, but the Vikings extended him after turning in 1,500 scrimmage yards last year. Blake Cashman had played in just 48 of 83 career games due to various nagging injuries and became the lynchpin to Brian Flores’ defense last year.
Jonathan Greenard missed a combined 11 games in 2022 and 2023 and rewarded the Vikings with a 12-sack season and a Pro Bowl. When the Vikings signed Andrew Van Ginkel, he was working his way back from a foot injury he suffered in the final game of 2023. All he did was become a Second-Team All-Pro as a Swiss Army knife off the edge.
CURRENT INJURY STATUS
With so many additions, Williams and his staff will have their work cut out for them in 2025. Let’s take a look at the current injury status for each player.
Will Fries injured his tibia in Week 5 of last year, which caused him to miss the remainder of the season. That was the first serious time Fries had missed after he took over as a starter for the Indianapolis Colts mid-season in 2022. Typically, bone fractures are relatively easy to heal, and players can recover fully. Still, the tibia is the second-largest bone in the body, making the situation a little more complicated. Hopefully, Williams and the team can get Fries to full strength.
Jonathan Allen missed seven games with a pectoral injury last year before returning for Washington’s run to the NFC Championship game. It was initially reported as a season-ending injury, but Allen was able to return, which is a great sign. Before that, Allen had barely missed time in his career, playing at least 700 snaps for seven consecutive years after his rookie season. Although he’s 30, the Vikings hope he can return some of his 2023 form, where he had over 40 pressures as a pass rusher.
Javon Hargrave comes to the Vikings after suffering a partially torn triceps in Week 3 of 2024. Before that, Hargrave had missed just four games in eight seasons. Because it’s an upper-body injury, Hargrave stands a good chance of maintaining his athleticism. At 32, Hargrave isn’t at his peak when he was one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. Still, the Vikings are betting that he has some juice left.
Ryan Kelly missed time for a neck and a knee injury last year. Neck injuries are tricky, but he played in seven games after suffering it, so hopefully it’s fully healed. Before that, the last time Kelly had missed more than a couple of games in a season was 2018. In the time between, he made Pro Bowls in four of five seasons from 2019 to 2023. Entering his 10th season, Kelly is an older player, and the Vikings must manage his workload.
Planning to Prevent Injury
Minnesota’s staff puts in a ton of planning to help prevent player injury, including using tracking data. They can devise an individualized plan for each player, where they suggest workouts, warmups, and rest days depending on what that player needs. Jones, one of the success stories above, raved about the Vikings’ “prehab.”
Through three seasons, the Vikings’ staff seems to have found the formula to get previously injured players to play at their peak. If they can pull it off again in 2025, it will become pretty clear that they’ve found a market inefficiency.
