The Minnesota Vikings have had their share of impact rookies over the years. Talk to any Vikings fan, and they’ll gleefully tell you about how Randy Moss changed the franchise’s trajectory in 1998. They’ll recall specific carries during Adrian Peterson’s 296-yard performance in 2007. Or how Justin Jefferson hit the Griddy on the final 10 yards of his first career touchdown catch in 2020.
Football fans love it when a rookie takes to the field and instantly becomes a superstar. Still, some rookies require patience while they take time to develop.
Vikings fans are scarred when it comes to long-term development. Lewis Cine never rebounded from his injury-shortened rookie season, and there were early signs that Christian Ponder wouldn’t pan out. Most fans discuss Erasmus James, Troy Williamson, and Laquon Treadwell through gritted teeth, and comparing a player to them usually means people think they’re a bust before they get the chance to prove themselves.
It’s a situation the Vikings are hoping to avoid with Dallas Turner and J.J. McCarthy. Still, Minnesota made a long-term bet on two players in vital roles.
Minnesota’s past few drafts have been an exercise in patience. Thanks to the extra year of eligibility the NCAA granted collegiate athletes during the COVID pandemic, we’ve seen more rookies enter the league at age 23 and older. Even the 2021 discussion around Hendon Hooker involved a 25 year old player and Bo Nix (24) and Jayden Daniels (24) entered the league in their mid-20s last season.
Being a young player doesn’t always guarantee success, but it could benefit McCarthy’s development.
McCarthy has been a lightning rod since the Vikings took him 10th-overall in 2024. He won the national championship at Michigan, but the Wolverines featured a run-first offense under Jim Harbaugh. Leaning on the running game and making throws when necessary created false narratives about his arm strength and long-term viability. He’s a project the Vikings were willing to take on.
The Vikings aren’t looking for a few years of success. While Nix and Daniels tasted it in their rookie campaign, they have less of a window thanks to their age. Consider that both players will sign long-term contracts when they’re 28 or 29, which significantly limits the upside at the end of their second contract. Although Nix and Daniels will likely improve, there’s also a chance they are what they are and won’t improve significantly.
McCarthy turned 22 in January and caused plenty of concern when he tore his meniscus last August, which required a second procedure in November. When he was shown on the sideline during a Week 18 loss against the Detroit Lions, many thought they were looking at a kid getting ready for the Minnesota High School Hockey Tournament, and the dreaded bust label popped up.
If he were in his mid-20s, there would be plenty of reasons to freak out. But at 22, the Vikings may have planned to sit McCarthy for a year anyway. They signed Sam Darnold, hoping he could carry the team, and he led them to a 14-win season. McCarthy could have debuted midway through last season had he not gotten hurt, but it was also likely they wanted Darnold to start all along, giving McCarthy a chance to immerse himself and get ready for the NFL game.
While his development hasn’t been perfect, it has also not been a reason for concern, and it has allowed him to dip his toes in the water during OTAs and minicamp.
A lot has been made of McCarthy’s offseason activities, but Turner is under a similar microscope. Turner turned Kevin O’Connell into a meme during the 2024 draft, and the Vikings paid an exorbitant price for him. Still, experts considered him a top-10 pick during the evaluation process.
But like McCarthy, Turner didn’t offer immediate value. Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard‘s presence kept him out of the starting lineup. Patrick Jones III and Jihad Ward earned more playing time in Flores’ complex defense.
While we don’t know McCarthy’s upside, Vikings fans felt they had a better idea with Turner because they saw him play last year. It also didn’t help that Jared Verse made an immediate impact, and the Los Angeles Rams took him two picks later. Verse tormented Darnold in Minnesota’s playoff loss and won the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Award.
However, Vikings fans must look at the numbers. Verse is a top-tier pass rusher dating back to his time at Florida State, but he also will turn 25 in November. There’s a good chance we’ve seen Verse’s ceiling, while Turner is still a developing player.
Consider Brian Flores’ comment during minicamp about having “three starters” at edge rusher. Turner has the talent to be a starter for several teams. Still, he may have landed in a better long-term situation with the Vikings. Turner turned 22 in February, and there’s still a feeling that Minnesota could unleash him when the season begins, giving Flores another weapon on a loaded defense.
Fans want instant gratification with rookies. Still, they’ll be just as happy if McCarthy and Turner break out in 2025. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell may have had this in mind all along, and it could be the difference between the Vikings living in a short-term window and one that could be open for a long time.
