It was evident that Carson Wentz should have slid on the play. Still, it was hard to fault him for trying to get the first down. The Minnesota Vikings’ season lay in the balance, and they hadn’t gotten anything going all quarter.
In Week 5, Wentz had led the Vikings on an eight-play, 82-yard drive to tie the Cleveland Browns 7-7 going into the second quarter. The Vikings won 21-17 in London, temporarily keeping their season alive. Still, Minnesota and Cleveland had traded five consecutive punts to start the second quarter. Facing third-and-eight, Wentz was trying to extend the drive to take a halftime lead.
It was a must-win game against Cleveland’s stout defense. The Vikings were 2-2 after J.J. McCarthy struggled in Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons and Carson Wentz had failed to lead a comeback against the Pittsburgh Steelers the week before in Dublin.
Lose to Cleveland, and the Vikings are 2-3 heading into the bye week. The hardest part of their schedule lay on the other side. The defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles at home, then the Los Angeles Chargers on the road four days later. The Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Seattle Seahawks after that. They had to win in London.
Minnesota’s season ended during that stretch after the London game. Like Carson Wentz’s shoulder, their season held on by a thread after the Los Angeles Chargers beat them 37-10 at SoFi Stadium. J.J. McCarthy offered a glimmer of hope after recovering from his high ankle sprain when he led the Vikings to victory in Detroit. However, it was short-lived. Four straight losses ultimately doomed their season.
We’re left to wonder what if Minnesota had run the ball on third-and-one against the Baltimore Ravens. What if special teams had covered the final kickoff against the Chicago Bears at home correctly? What if Wentz leads a game-winning drive against Pittsburgh in Dublin?
Here’s one, though: What if Carson Wentz was available to start against the Seattle Seahawks?
The Green Bay Packers pummeled J.J. McCarthy in Week 12, following the Bears game in Minneapolis. McCarthy had the worst game of his career. He finished 12 of 19 for 87 yards and two picks, good for a 34.2 passer rating. Only his start against Atlanta in Week 2 was comparably lousy (37.5).
Perhaps the Vikings put in Wentz in the second half. Still, it’s hard to imagine he’d have turned things around. Minnesota faced Green Bay’s defense with Micah Parsons before he tore his ACL. Still, Wentz would likely have been more productive. He averaged 243.2 yards per game; McCarthy averaged 161.1.
Wentz was productive in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. He just didn’t take care of the ball, throwing five picks in five starts.
Still, when McCarthy reported concussion symptoms after the Packers game, the Vikings turned to Max Brosmer in Seattle. The undrafted free agent out of the University of Minnesota had to start against one of the league’s best defenses in the NFL’s loudest stadium.
Brosmer threw four picks in Seattle, resulting in a 32.8 passer rating. Still, Minnesota’s defense gave the team a chance. They didn’t give up a touchdown until the fourth quarter. Take away the touchdown from Brosmer’s pick six, and the Seahawks only score 19 points.
Seattle likely capitalizes on Wentz’s propensity to throw risky passes. Still, he gives them a better chance to win.
McCarthy played better against the Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants. Brosmer stepped in for McCarthy when he injured his hand against the Giants and led Minnesota to a 16-13 win. Still, the Vikings only won Thursday’s game against the Detroit Lions because their defense forced six turnovers. Brosmer was nine of 16 for 51 yards against Detroit, finishing with three net passing yards.
Wentz never played so well that he would have taken McCarthy’s starting job, mainly because the Vikings are developing McCarthy to become a franchise quarterback. Still, Went set a floor. He was productive, throwing for over 300 yards twice. He just couldn’t limit turnovers.
Justin Jefferson was also more productive with Wentz under center. He had his only two 100-yard games and averaged 95.4 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, he’s averaging 50.4 receiving yards per game in McCarthy and Brosmer’s starts. He only had four yards in Brosmer’s first start and 30 in his second.
It’s impossible to know, but could Carson Wentz have eked out a win over Philadelphia or Seattle if he were healthy? It’s unlikely, but Minnesota could have made Week 18’s game against Green Bay meaningful. Minnesota would be 9-7, and the 9-6-1 Packers lost to Baltimore on Saturday. The Vikings would be 10-6 if Wentz had led a game-winning drive in Dublin.
Whether the Vikings could have snuck into the playoffs if Wentz had stayed healthy isn’t even the biggest Carson Wentz question. Minnesota traded for him in late August. What if he had come to camp earlier? Is he more productive with better knowledge of the offense?
It’s also not the biggest quarterback question. After the season Sam Darnold has had, the Vikings have left everyone wondering whether they are a playoff team with him under center.
Still, in a lost year, it’s only natural to speculate about the butterfly effect of Carson Wentz’s decision to stretch for a first down in London. Football is a game of inches, but Wentz didn’t need to take that yard. Live to fight for another drive, and the Vikings don’t lose their veteran backup in a season where J.J. McCarthy has been hurt for all but nine games.
