Last weekend, the Minnesota Vikings announced that they extended offensive coordinator Wes Phillips, a continuation of the offseason where they’ve extended head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. This means that O’Connell, Phillips, and defensive coordinator Brian Flores will be entering their third consecutive year together in 2025, a somewhat rare feat for NFL coaching staffs.
The nature of the NFL means that coaches from successful teams are regularly poached. Head coaches with poor records are often on the hot seat after their second season, and they will often make coordinator changes in an effort to buy more time. O’Connell has only made one coordinator change in his tenure, firing Ed Donatell after one season and bringing in Flores.
Flores has been a rousing success the last two seasons but has not gotten serious looks from other teams for another head coaching job, likely due to his ongoing lawsuit against the NFL. Meanwhile, despite supporting an offense that has vastly overperformed expectations with a ragtag group of QBs the last two seasons, Phillips hasn’t gotten serious HC looks because outsiders, rightly or wrongly, attribute that success to O’Connell.
Theoretically, continuity should lead to better chances at success. The coaches have now had years to implement their system, and players can build on knowledge from previous years rather than spending most of the offseason learning a new scheme with new language and rules.
Vikings fans have experienced the impact of constant turnover. From 2016 to 2021, the team had six offensive coordinators under former head coach Mike Zimmer. Those offenses never settled in, eventually leading to the regime’s downfall.
Theory is great, but what about in practice? I went to history to learn how coaching staffs in their third season typically perform. I looked through Minnesota’s history and figured out the last time each other NFL team had a triumvirate reach three full seasons together.
There are a couple of caveats on the data.
First, in some circumstances, teams didn’t have a named OC or DC, and I had to make judgment calls on who functionally held the position.
This was easy for recent situations. I remember Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick sharing DC responsibilities with the New England Patriots, or Mike LeFleur and Mike McDaniel splitting pass/run-game responsibilities for the San Francisco 49ers. However, it was harder for teams like the mid-2000s Tennessee Titans or Jacksonville Jaguars, which I don’t remember vividly, or all the way back to the 1980s Oakland Raiders, who I included on the list.
Second, I only included seasons in which all three coaches coached for three full seasons. So, if a coach started as an interim in the first season or was fired in the middle of the third season, I excluded that. Technically, one of O’Connell, Phillips, or Flores could be fired this year, which may be unfair. Still, given their recent performance and extensions, I think it’s very unlikely.
Without further ado, let’s look at the history of HC/OC/DC trios in their third year.
The Vikings
By my count, the Vikings have had five different coaching staffs hit three complete seasons — in 2009, 1998, 1988, 1983, and 1970.
Here are those staffs:
It’s immediately clear that these staffs all attained a high level of success; 2009 and 1998 will stick out to any Vikings fans as devastating NFC Championship game losses. Meanwhile, 1988 was one year after another NFCCG loss, and 1970 was the year after the team lost their first Super Bowl.
Only the 1983 group, in the twilight of Bud Grant‘s career, failed to reach that level of success (although they still made the Divisional Round in 1982), and Jerry Burns and Grant were both in place for each of the team’s four Super Bowl appearances.
Four of the five teams got to at least the Divisional Round of the playoffs, while the two more recent ones made the NFCCG. If you average the teams’ records, you get a 75.6% winning percentage, roughly equivalent to a 13-4 record. That sets high expectations for this year’s Vikings team. That kind of season has produced some of the best teams in the franchise’s history.
Does that trend hold true across the league? Let’s look at the last time each team has had a coaching trio accomplish this milestone next.
the NFL
Along with the Vikings, three other coaching staffs are reaching their third season together in 2025:
- The Kansas City Chiefs with Andy Reid, Matt Nagy, and Steve Spagnuolo
- The Denver Broncos with Sean Payton, Joe Lombardi, and Vance Joseph
- And the Arizona Cardinals with Jonathan Gannon, Drew Petzing, and Nick Rallis
Here’s the full list recording the last time each franchise has had an HC/OC/DC trio last three consecutive years:
Three years is an obtainable feat for a coaching staff; 18 teams have done it in the last 10 seasons. However, the Jaguars are missing from this list entirely. By my count, they have never kept the same three coaches in the HC, OC, and DC roles for three consecutive seasons. Jack Del Rio and Tom Coughlin had staffs that came close, each with OCs and DCs that lasted more than three years, but never simultaneously.
In an impressive feat, three names are on this list twice — Andy Reid with the Eagles and Chiefs, Bruce Arians with the Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Ron Rivera with the Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders.
At a glance, these staffs were generally successful. While only three teams made the Super Bowl in the year they hit three seasons together, 20 of the 32 teams (excluding the 1998, 1988, 1983, and 1970 Vikings teams to make the criteria consistent) made the playoffs. Twelve, or three-eighths of these HCs, won a Super Bowl with the team they were coaching.
Even the teams that missed the playoffs had strong success in other seasons. The 49ers hit the mark in 2020 and were coming off a Super Bowl appearance following the 2019 season. John Harbaugh, Bruce Arians, Mike McCarthy, and Tom Coughlin are Super Bowl-winning coaches. Even Rex Ryan, Mike Smith, and Lovie Smith made CCGs within two years of hitting this mark.
The real weak links on this list are Rivera, Jason Garrett, and Kevin Stefanski. Rivera was mostly left alone during an era of great turmoil in the Washington front office that ended in the team’s sale. Garrett was well into his Dallas Cowboys tenure in 2017, and they couldn’t replicate their success in 2014 and 2016. Stefanski has been hindered by his team’s decision to tie themselves to a massive anchor at QB, although he may also bear some blame for that choice.
To me, Stefanski’s situation seems to be the biggest risk for O’Connell. The team clearly believes in J.J. McCarthy, and I agree with them, but their success is still intrinsically linked. If McCarthy flops, O’Connell might well end up like Stefanski, who hasn’t been able to best his Divisional Round appearance.
Let’s flip it back to the positive side. An incredible 25 of these 32 coaches have made the Conference Championship with their teams, and 18 have made the Super Bowl. While Vikings fans are unlikely to be satisfied with another Super Bowl loss, it would still be a great achievement for O’Connell to become the second Vikings HC to make one.
By record, teams have performed very well when in this situation. Again, excluding the additional Vikings teams, the overall record for these teams is 412-182-2, which is a 69.3% winning percentage. Ranked against coaches, that would be seventh all time, after Guy Chamberlin, John Madden, Vince Lombardi, George Allen, Nick Sirianni, and Tommy Hughitt.
If you’ve never heard of Chamberlin and Hughitt and are wondering who they are, they coached in the 1920s. Kevin O’Connell is 15th all-time in winning percentage (66.7%). Over a 17-game season, that averages to a record of just under 12-5.
The HCs listed above lasted an incredibly long time. They had a combined 320 seasons in the HC role, over 10 years per coach on average. This was helped by incredibly long tenures for Bill Belichick (24 years) and Don Shula (26 years). Still, 13 lasted at least 10 years, and 19 lasted at least eight years. Only eight coached five seasons or fewer.
Interestingly, while head HCs on the are still in their roles, only one of the coordinators listed, Spagnuolo, is still in his. That’s partially due to coaches receiving promotions — 19 of the coaches on the list got an HC job due to their performance in the role listed, but there are notable absences.
- Stefanski moved on from Alex Van Pelt and Joe Woods as his offense and defense floundered.
- Eric Bieniemy sought a play-calling job and flamed out after one year.
- The Baltimore Ravens moved on from Greg Roman and Wink Martindale, reinventing themselves and getting better results.
- The Cincinnati Bengals fired Lou Anarumo this offseason after their defensive draft picks failed to develop.
- For the Pittsburgh Steelers, Keith Butler retired, but Randy Fichtner was fired because they’ve been unable to get the offensive side of the ball right in recent years.
- Sean McDermott moved on from Leslie Frazier after 2022 as he tried to revamp the Buffalo Bills’ defense.
What does this mean?
It’s impossible to predict Minnesota’s 2025 season based on this information, but the historical results bode well. Based on historical results, you should expect the Vikings to make the playoffs this season. Most of these teams did, and their average record was extremely good.
For Kevin O’Connell, it would be surprising if he never bested his 2024 result of a Wild Card loss. Of this sample, only one coach, Rivera with Washington, failed to go further than the Wild Card round in their tenure with that team. In terms of length, it seems that O’Connell will be around for the long haul. With more than half of the coaches hitting eight years of service in their roles, there’s a good chance he’ll be here five more years.
However, things are less certain for the coordinators. Successful teams eventually shake things up, by choice or otherwise; 19 of 62 is about 30.6% — just under a one-third chance at a promotion. If the Vikings are successful this year and in the future, Flores and Phillips will get strong consideration for HC jobs. If the team starts to flounder, they may end up on the chopping block as the team looks to rebound.
Will the Vikings be able to build on their 2024 success and live up to the results historical coaching trios have achieved in their third season together? Only time will tell.
