Rocco Baldelli grew up playing in Rhode Island’s cold weather. Still, he recalls the chill he felt during the 2008 World Series when it moved to Philadelphia for Game 3.
“This is the most important game I will ever play in my life,” Baldelli, who was playing for the Tampa Bay Rays, remembers thinking, “and it is nasty. I can’t feel my hands.”
The series never returned to Tampa. The Philadelphia Phillies won in five games, and Baldelli retired two years later. Still, it’s not lost on him that baseball teams play their most important games in the most adverse weather.
“It’s not just a physical test,” said Baldelli. “It’s a mental test to be able to perform in those spots. That’s the reality of our game, so you better embrace it.”
Baseball is different in April and October. The ball travels further in the warm summer air, and players take longer to get loose in the wintery mix. Many players come from the Sun Belt or warm-weather countries, and the Minnesota Twins host spring training in Florida.
Minnesota’s offense has started slow in each of the past five years. (I didn’t include the 60-game COVID-shortened season, which began in July.)
- 2019: .257/.325/.495 in April, .270/.338/.494 on the season
- 2021: .241/.311/.413 in April, .241/.314/.424 on the season
- 2022: .228/.312/.377 in April, .248/.317/.401 on the season
- 2023: .237/.310/.413 in April, .243/.326/.401 on the season
- 2024: .235/.314/.401 in April, .246/.315/.411 on the season
Weather alone doesn’t affect offense
There are a lot of mitigating factors with this data.
MLB used juiced baseballs in 2019, and Minnesota’s Bomba Squad hit 307 home runs that year, a major-league record.
The 2021 season was over before it started. Alex Colomé blew a save on opening day and had a minus-0.7 WAR as a closer. Minnesota started 7-15 and never recovered. Jorge Polanco led them with 5.0 WAR. Byron Buxton was second with 4.9. He played 61 games.
A year later, the Twins started around .500 and surged during the middle of the season. They were 62-55 on Aug. 19 but finished 16-29 because they lacked depth. Nick Gordon was hitting cleanup, and Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were starting crucial September games.
In response, Minnesota doubled down on depth in the offseason, adding Donovan Solano when he felt redundant and forcing Bailey Ober to start in Triple-A. The Twins had a wonky season. They were 45-46 at the All-Star Break but rallied to win 87 games and their first playoff series since 2002.
However, a year after breaking through in the postseason, ownership cut payroll and lost vital depth. As a result, the Twins experienced a similar collapse to 2022.
Depth typically affects Minnesota’s month-to-month offense
April showers alone don’t bring May power. Other factors like player health and depth also influence month-to-month slash lines. However, the Twins typically hit better once the calendar shifts to May.
The 2019 Twins broke out in May, hitting .286/.353/.521, their best month that year. However, the cold air didn’t prevent them from hitting homers. The Twins hit more than 50 bombas every month but September, when they slashed .257/.330/.443 with 39 home runs in the colder weather.
Two years later, the Twins never improved their offense after April. They hit .237/.319/.426 in May. Even the summer heat didn’t help their offense. Minnesota slashed .233/.317/.398 in August.
Minnesota started slowly in 2022. However, they hit .262/.334/.411 in May and .261/.320/.450 in June. The Twins were 50-44 at the All-Star Break but hit .241/.309/.375 and went 28-40 in the second half.
Despite their playoff success in 2023, the Twins hit worse in May and June. However, they hit .258/.346/.463 in the second half, including .262/.355/.461 in September as they surged into the playoffs.
Last year, the Twins only hit .229/.295/.394 in May, then turned it around in June (.282/.343/.473). However, they hit .235/.304/.386 in the second half, finishing September with a .218/.285/.338 slash line.
The best teams heat up when the weather cools off
Weather plays a factor. Baseballs don’t travel as far, and players take longer to loosen up. However, weather alone doesn’t determine offense. The best teams play their best ball late in the season.
“Offense is sometimes hard to come by in April and in cold weather. It is,” said Baldelli. “[But] you have to win games even with that.”
Even the 2023 Twins outperformed the Bomba Squad in September, leading to playoff success. The best teams don’t wait on the rain. They heat up when the lights get brighter and the nights grow cold.
