Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 30.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
The Wolves should dominate this game, and Ant should be the main driver of that domination. He’s guaranteed to cool off somewhat from the career high 55-piece he dropped in San Antonio, but the Jazz will have no answer for him tonight. They haven’t had an answer in the other meetings this season as he’s dropped 35 and 37, the latter coming in a 40-point blowout so even if the Wolves run away with this, Ant should get his. Utah is on no rest with travel, and missing some key players, so the league’s worst defense isn’t stopping one of the league’s premier scorers here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) NC State @ Clemson -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
This NC State team is still in the early stages of Will Wade’s rebuilding job, and while they’ve been good in spots, they’re not consistent enough to compete with Clemson on the road. The Wolfpack need their high volume of three’s to be falling, typically against weaker competition, to look like a good team right now. When they step up in class, go cold from deep, or both, it can get ugly for them.
I think Clemson can shut off the three-point shooting as they’re 14th nationally in three-point percentage allowed. At home is where they really clamp down, only allowing visitors to shoot 23.9% from deep which is 5th-best in the country. The Tigers are legit on defense overall, and play extremely well as a team, with a resume that says they’re a real threat in the ACC. They’re also 5-1 ATS in conference play so far, and I think they roll in this one given the favorable matchups.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
After two tough and honestly ugly road losses, my Cyclones are in desperate need of an injection of Hilton Magic. Coming back home should work wonders for this team, as their home/road splits are starting to become a worrying angle of how their season could go. They’ll be extremely motivated here off those losses, and I think UCF is a good opponent to have as the Knights will push tempo themselves. That should give ISU plenty of possessions to put up points, and they’ve been good at that in home games with 44.6 first half points on average. I still think the Clones are one of the best teams in the country, and they should show it here for the Hilton faithful.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan First Half Team Total Over 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock
Speaking of teams that could use a big performance at home, Michigan comes back home after their west coast trip to the scene of the crime. Their last game at Crisler Center was an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin, so I’d expect them to want to flush that memory with a big showing tonight. The country’s top first-half scoring team at 47.6 points on average and 51.1 at home certainly has the firepower to do it.
This is still a top-5 offense by adjusted efficiency, and the Wolverines lead the country in two-point percentage which is a weakness for Indiana. I see the Wolverines turning up the pace in this game, and I have to wonder how much sleep the Hoosiers got after watching their football team last night. So at this number that Michigan is 6-2 over in true home games, I’ll expect them to get back to their typical home dominance at somewhat of a buy-low price.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Miami-OH -1 @ Kent State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is bound to be a tight game since that’s all Kent State ever does, with the Golden Flashes having a 4.7-point average final margin in their conference games so far. But smart money corrected the opening number on this, moving Miami to the short favorite and I would have to agree. The winning streak should continue here for one of the country’s last unbeatens, as this offense won’t find much resistance tonight.
Kent State just doesn’t have the defense to contend here, ranked 245th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 289th in effective field goal defense, and 341st in three-point defense. That’s a bad recipe against the country’s best effective field goal percentage offense, and 8th-best three-point shooting team. Miami just doesn’t miss, it’s not fluky hot shooting, they’re really this good. They also got a scare from Buffalo over the weekend so I’d expect them to be more focused tonight, and this kind of pick-em line is exactly the spot to back the red hot RedHawks.
Degenerates
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
The Wolves don’t typically score like this in first halves, averaging just 57.5 first half points in road games. But it’s Utah, who allows 64.0 first half points overall and 65.0 in home games, just comically bad numbers that you have to take advantage of. Minnesota had two very different first halves against the Jazz this season, one with 53 points and one with 79 points, but I’ll split the difference and expect them to clear tonight’s total. Utah is just too banged up to compete with Minnesota’s starters, especially on no rest which has been an indicator of tons of points in Jazz games this season, so look for a big early number fueled by Ant’s scoring.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-27 (-5.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
