Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Boston Celtics Under 212.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
I really wish this total hadn’t cratered since the open, but I still have to take a shot on the under at this number. These teams are just too good at cashing under tickets, the two best in the league as a matter of fact, along with having the two lowest average margins to the total this season. And with Charlotte having played last night, that triggers their situational greatness in back-to-back spots.
The Hornets are 9-3 to the under this season with no rest, and 10-2 to the under when they have a rest disadvantage against their opponent. Both of these defenses are on point right now, and even this very low number can’t keep me away from backing the massive trends in play here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on KJZZ
On the other end of the spectrum sits this game, which I think at least to start out will be the complete opposite of Boston and Charlotte. These teams have been getting into wild first quarters all season, regardless of how many injuries they suffer to star players. Plenty of big names appear on the injury report tonight, but a collection of backups might actually help to generate more pace and diminish defense.
Early game defense is neither team’s strength in general, as the Sixers are 28th in first quarter points allowed in home games, while the Jazz are dead last in first quarter points allowed overall. Philadelphia can fill it up to start games though, ranked 3rd in first quarter scoring, so they should torch a Utah defense allowing 32.6 first quarter points in their post All-Star break games. The Sixers will also be in a foul mood after getting run by 40 last night, so a massive first quarter is probably coming for them to help push this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Florida vs Florida Gulf Coast -3.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s here, the first day games of conference tournament season, and I couldn’t be more excited. This is a better two weeks of college basketball betting than anything the start of the actual big dance can offer, and I’ll die on that hill. I’ll also die on the hill of using prior matchup data points to handicap these conference tournament matchups, and in this case it points squarely at Gulf Coast early.
The Eagles have had a rough season overall, but they’ve managed to bully North Alabama in both meetings, leading at the break by 10 and 7 points. Putting this third matchup on a neutral court hurts North Alabama more than FGCU, as the Lions bring terrible shooting numbers to this game. They’re 327th in three-point percentage and don’t take many, so they bypass FGCU’s defensive weakness to play right into its strength of defending inside. That’s been the formula for the Eagles to dominate this matchup, and I think it continues today.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas/Arkansas Over 165.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Arkansas games are simply automatic overs at this point, especially when they match up with another high-level offense. The Arkansas pace has turned their games into track meets recently, and if they drive tempo and pull a slower Texas team into a high-possessions affair, this game can fly over the total. This Texas offense is quietly elite, ranked 7th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and giving them more possessions is a recipe for a ton of points.
The Longhorns specialize in scoring inside where the Arkansas defense is weakest, but Texas can also be scored on in transition which is what the Hogs will look to do. Texas is in a precarious bubble situation so they’ll be playing with some desperation, which would mean lots of fouls in a close game. Arkansas meanwhile will likely look to run it up if they can to flush the memory of their beatdown in Florida, so with metrics sites projecting this game in the 170’s, I’m really liking the over here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Loyola-Chicago @ St Louis -24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN
I don’t love laying this kind of number, but it’s such a massive mismatch on the court that this is really the only play. St Louis took Loyola to the woodshed on the road a few weeks ago by 27 points thanks to lopsided three-point production. That’s bound to happen for an offense that leads the country in three-point percentage when facing a defense that’s 347th in three-point percentage allowed.
It gets worse for the Ramblers though, who can’t shoot from deep themselves but it’s tough to convince them of that. They’re 326th in three-point shooting percentage, rely heavily on them, and going up against a SLU defense that’s 4th nationally in percentage allowed. Disparity like that again in this game is going to get Loyola run out again, and with the Billikens also first in ATS wins at home this season, I’ll lay the big number here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Baylor @ Houston -8.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Houston isn’t talked about the same way they’ve been in previous seasons, but their home dominance has not faltered much. The angle of backing this team in the first half at home will always be worth considering, and even though the distraction of senior night is going on here, this team needs to make statements down the stretch of the season.
Houston could theoretically play their way into a 1-seed, but would need big statement wins to do it. That’s what I’m banking on here, as a Baylor team in a natural letdown spot that isn’t going dancing can easily get run out of the gym. The Cougars should have too easy a time scoring inside here, and their average first half margin at home of plus-15.0 points might come into play if they’re motivated enough.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-16 (-2.15 Units) – Recommend: Consider Fading
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
